Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-200, 9)
The Cardinals (41-35) cruised to a 6-1 victory in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as -140 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Reds (39-37) hand the ball to lefty Brent Suter (1-0, 2.91 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to righty Sonny Gray (7-2, 3.84 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -185 home favorite and Cincinnati a +155 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with St. Louis to post another win at Busch Stadium, steaming the Cardinals up from -185 to -200.
At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 86% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home chalk.
Home favorites -200 or more are 114-39 (75%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites -200 or more off a win receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction are 59-17 (78%) with an 8% ROI.
The Cardinals are 11-5 (69%) with a 25% ROI at home against an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season.
St. Louis is hitting .273 at home, 4th best in MLB.
Gray is 5-1 with a 2.85 ERA at home this season. The Cardinals are 11-3 in his 14 starts overall.
9:38 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (-120, 8.5)
The Astros (44-32) won last night’s series opener 3-2 in extra innings, cashing as -175 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Astros start lefty Brandon Walter (0-0, 1.53 ERA) and the Angels (36-39) tap righty Jose Soriano (4-5, 3.54 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 road favorite and Los Angeles a +100 home dog.
The public is backing the Astros, who are laying a cheap chalk price and have a better won-loss record.
However, despite 62% of moneyline bets taking Houston at DraftKings, we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Los Angeles, driving the Angels from a +100 home dog to -120 home favorite.
Why would the oddsmakers move the line away from the popular side and offer a far better price on Houston when the public is already backing the Astros to begin with? Because respected smart money has come down in favor of the Angels, triggering wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in their favor.
At DraftKings, the Angels are receiving 38% of moneyline bets and 51% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 69% of moneyline bets but a hefty 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the fishy home favorite.
Sub .500 favorites off a loss receiving at least 5-cents of line move in their direction against an above .500 team are 12-4 (75%) with a 36% ROI this season.
Saturday home teams off loss are 41-32 (56%) with a 6% ROI. Saturday home teams who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 61-45 (58%) with a 9% ROI.
10:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Athletics (-130, 9.5)
The Athletics (32-46) took last night’s series opener 5-1, coming through as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (37-37) send out righty Luis Ortiz (3-8, 4.64 ERA) and the Athletics counter with fellow righty Mitch Spence (2-1, 3.50 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 road favorite and the Athletics a -105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk in a bounce back spot, steaming Cleveland up from -115 to -130.
At Circa, the Guardians are receiving 67% of moneyline bets but an overwhelming 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating respected smart money out in the desert backing Cleveland.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 94-61 (61%) with a 3% ROI this season. Road favorites off a loss who also made the playoffs the previous season are 63-39 (62%) with a 4% ROI.
The Guardians are 8-3 (73%) with a 20% ROI as a favorite with a line move in their direction.
Cleveland has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Guardians have a big edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.66 compared to 6.10 for the Athletics, dead last in MLB.
