Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game slate of MLB action to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-125, 7.5) at Texas Rangers
The Mariners (42-39) won last night’s series opener 7-6 in extra innings, taking care of business as -115 road favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Mariners tap righty Bryan Woo (7-4, 3.12 ERA) and the Rangers (40-42) go with fellow righty Kumar Rocker (3-4, 6.68 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -140 road favorite and Texas a +120 home dog.
The public is riding the Mariners, who are taking in 76% of moneyline bets at DraftKings. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Mariners fall from -140 to -125.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Rangers, as the line has moved in their direction (+120 to +105) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Texas is taking in 24% of moneyline bets but 45% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rangers are receiving 80% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
Texas has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
Rocker is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA at home compared to 1-4 with an 11.34 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Woo has a 3.83 ERA on the road compared to 2.08 at home.
4:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (-150, 9)
The Marlins (35-45) stole last night’s series opener 9-8, coming through as +145 road dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 6.69 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (41-40) counter with fellow righty Brandon Pfaadt (8-5, 5.49 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -145 home favorite and Miami a +125 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Snakes to get back on track, driving Arizona up form -145 to -150. Some shops are even approaching -155.
At Circa, the Diamondbacks are receiving only 40% of moneyline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy desert wagers backing the home chalk.
Home favorites with a line move in their direction after losing the first game of a series are 43-26 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. Saturday home favorites off a loss with a winning record are 18-10 (64%) with a 6% ROI.
The Diamondbacks have the more explosive bats, hitting 118 homers and scoring 421 runs compared to the Marlins hitting 71 homers and scoring 339 runs.
Pfaadt is 5-2 with a 4.08 ERA at home compared to 3-3 with a 6.60 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Alcantara is 1-4 with a 9.82 ERA on the road compared to 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA at home.
9:38 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels (-125, 9)
The Nationals (34-48) won last night’s Interleague series opener 15-9, cashing as +140 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Nationals send out righty Michael Soroka (3-5, 5.06 ERA) and the Angels (40-41) turn to fellow righty Kyle Hendricks (5-6, 4.83 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -130 home favorite and Washington a +110 road dog.
The public is siding with the Angels to bounce back with a win. However, despite receiving 60% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Los Angeles dip from -130 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Washington, as the line has moved in their favor (+110 to +105) despite being the unpopular side.
At Circa, the Nationals are receiving 43% of moneyline bets but a hefty 85% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the sharp wagers in Vegas taking a shot on the road dog.
Road dogs off a win since May 1st are 108-117 (48%) but have produced an 11% ROI due to the plus money dog payouts.
Washington has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Soroka has pitched better as of late, allowing 3 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts.
Washington is hitting .245 on the road, 13th best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Angels are hitting .225 at home, ranking 27th.
