Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-145, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates (13-26) won last night’s series opener 3-2, cashing as +130 home dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Braves (18-20) hand the ball to righty AJ Smith-Shawver (2-2, 3.00 ERA) and the Pirates counter with lefty Andrew Heaney (2-3, 3.18 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -135 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +120 home dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Braves in a bounce back spot, steaming Atlanta up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Braves are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Atlanta.
Favorites off a loss are 145-89 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 135-63 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 89-49 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
The Braves have the superior offense, hitting .239 with 41 homers and 151 runs scored compared to the Pirates only hitting .218 with 28 homers and 121 runs scored.
Atlanta has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Braves have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.71 compared to 4.30 for the Pirates.
Smith-Shawver has given up two earned runs or less in four of his five starts this season. Heaney has a 3.57 ERA at home compared to 2.65 on the road.
6:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-110, 7.5)
The Tigers (26-13) won last night’s series opener 2-1, taking care of business as -290 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers (18-21) send out righty Jacob deGrom (2-1, 2.61 ERA) and the Tigers turn to fellow righty Jack Flaherty (1-4, 3.79 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -115 road favorite and Detroit a +100 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Tigers at home, flipping Detroit from a +100 home dog to a -110 home favorite. Some shops are even approaching -115. This signals wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the red-hot Tigers, who have won eight of their last nine games.
At Circa, the Tigers are taking in over 95% of moneyline bets and dollars, further evidence of heavy one-way support in favor of Detroit out in Vegas.
Home favorites off a win with line movement in their direction are 93-42 (69%) with a 10% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 29-15 (66%) with a 7% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 128-65 (66%) with a 6% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 190-114 (65%) with a 5% ROI.
Detroit has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Tigers have the better bats, hitting .259 with 48 homers and 210 runs scored compared to the Rangers only hitting .229 with 33 homers and 124 runs scored. The Tigers also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.39 (1st in MLB) compared to 4.00 for the Rangers.
deGrom has a 4.82 ERA on the road compared to 1.88 at home. Meanwhile, Flaherty has a 1.59 ERA at home compared to 5.57 on the road.
Detroit is 14-3 at home this season. Texas is 6-13 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-125, 8)
The Blue Jays (18-20) stole last night’s series opener 6-3, cashing as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays start righty Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.66 ERA) and the Mariners (22-15) tap fellow righty Logan Evans (1-1, 7.20 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -120 home favorite and Toronto a +105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Mariners to get back on track, driving Seattle up from -120 to -125. Some shops are even creeping up toward -130.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mariners are taking in more than 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Seattle in a bounce back spot.
Home favorites off a loss are 87-49 (64%) with a 7% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 29-15 (66%) with a 7% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 128-65 (66%) with a 6% ROI.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Mariners have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.43 compared to 4.13 for the Blue Jays.
Seattle has the more explosive bats, hitting 51 homers and scoring 188 runs compared to Toronto only hitting 27 homers and scoring 141 runs.
The Mariners are 12-7 at home. The Blue Jays are 7-12 on the road.
