Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 7.5) at Miami Marlins
The Phillies (27-12) cruised to an 8-2 victory in Friday night’s series opener, easily cashing as a -190 road favorite. In this late afternoon rematch, the Phillies start righty Taijuan Walker (2-0, 6.39 ERA) and the Marlins (10-30) are expected to go with lefty Jesus Luzardo (0-2, 6.58 ERA), who is set to return from the Injured List with an elbow issue. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -125 road favorite and Miami a +115 home dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the red-hot Phillies laying a modest chalk price, steaming Philadelphia up from -125 to -135. The Phillies are receiving 96% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive one-way bet split signaling heavy Pro and public action in their favor. The Phillies have the better offense, hitting .261 with 48 homers and 199 runs scored compared to Miami hitting .224 with 31 homers and 145 runs scored. Road favorites are 119-79 (60%) with a 6% ROI this season. Favorites are 58-35 (62%) with an 8% ROI on Saturdays, the best chalk day of the week. Philadelphia is 12-5 on the road. Miami is just 5-16 at home. The Phillies are hitting .279 vs lefties this season, tied for the best in MLB. The Phillies also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Phillies are +58 in run differential. The Marlins are -85, tied with the White Sox for the worst in baseball.
7:15 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-185, 7.5)
The Brewers (23-15) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 7-1 as +120 home dogs and then winning again last night 11-2 as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals (15-23) start righty Kyle Gibson (2-2, 3.68 ERA) and the Brewers counter with fellow righty Freddy Peralta (3-1, 3.49 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -155 home favorite and St. Louis a +140 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand with the Brewers at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -155 to -185. The Brewers are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Milwaukee has the far better bats, hitting .256 with 47 homers and 129 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .215 with 28 homers and 129 runs scored. Saturday favorites are 58-35 (62%) with an 8% ROI. Milwaukee also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Brewers are 5-0 against the Cardinals this season. Milwaukee is +34 in run differential. St. Louis is -50. The Brewers are 9-7 at home. The Cardinals 9-12 on the road. Milwaukee is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .257 with a 3.35 ERA. St. Louis is 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .210 with a 5.38 ERA.
9:38 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-160, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
The Royals (24-16) have won the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 10-4 as -115 road favorites and then coming from behind yesterday to win 2-1 as -120 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals hand the ball to lefty Cole Ragans (2-2, 3.38 ERA) and the Angels (14-25) turn to fellow southpaw Tyler Anderson (2-4, 2.74 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -135 road favorite and Los Angeles a +120 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Royals to post another win, steaming Kansas City up from -135 to -160. The Royals are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes. Road favorites are 119-79 (60%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Royals also have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Saturday non-division road favorites are 18-5 (78%) with a 41% ROI. Kansas City also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). The Royals are 9-8 on the road. The Angels are 4-13 at home. Kansas City is +53 in run differential. Los Angeles is -41. Ragans has a 5.70 ERA at home but a 0.47 ERA on the road. The Angels are 0-5 in Anderson’s last five starts.
