Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-175, 7.5)
The Reds (29-29) took yesterday’s series opener 6-2, cashing as +135 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Reds hand the ball to lefty Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.39 ERA) and the Cubs (35-22) counter with fellow southpaw Drew Pomeranz (2-0, 0.00 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -155 home favorite and Cincinnati a +140 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Cubs in a bounce-back spot, steaming Chicago up from -155 to -175.
At DraftKings, Chicago is receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe action in favor of the Cubs at Wrigley.
Home favorites in the second game of a series after losing game one are 41-25 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Cubs are the second best “bounce back” team in baseball, going 15-4 (79%) with a 45% ROI following a loss this season. Chicago is 16-6 (73%) with a 10% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their direction.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win.
Chicago is hitting .260 against lefties (7th best in MLB) while Cincinnati is only hitting .218 (26th).
Lodolo has a 4.88 ERA in five May starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 27.2 innings pitched. Cincinnati is 1-4 in his last five starts.
4:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (-140, 8.5)
This is the third game of a four-game series.
The Rays (29-28) dominated the opener 13-3, cruising as -105 road dogs. Then the Astros (31-26) bounced back with a 2-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -150 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Rays send out righty Zack Littell (4-5, 3.97 ERA) and the Astros turn to lefty Colton Gordon (0-0, 5.52 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -115 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +105 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite a split 50/50 moneyline ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen Houston get steamed up from -115 to -140. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Houston.
At Circa, the Astros are only receiving 50% of moneyline bets but over 90% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the home chalk out in Vegas.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 131-69 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 179-93 (66%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season who also receive line movement in their direction are 126-55 (70%) with an 11% ROI.
The Astros are hitting .279 at home (3rd best in MLB) and .255 against righties (9th). Meanwhile, the Rays are hitting .237 on the road (18th) and .221 against lefties (22nd).
Houston is hitting .290 over their last ten games compared to .265 for Tampa Bay.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-115, 9.5) at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers (35-22) won last night’s Interleague series opener 8-5, cashing as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees (35-21) start righty Will Warren (3-2, 4.09 ERA) and the Dodgers go with fellow righty Landon Knack (2-2, 5.22 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -120 home favorite and New York a +105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Yankees to bounce back with a win, flipping New York from a +105 road dog to a -115 road favorite. This signals wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Bronx Bombers.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are taking in 56% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is receiving 62% of moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing modest public support but also respected sharp action on the Yankees in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.
Road favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 47-27 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Yankees are 14-4 (78%) with a 26% ROI as a favorite off a loss, the second back “bounce back” chalk team in MLB.
Warren has a 2.70 ERA in five May starts, allowing only 8 earned runs in 26.2 innings pitched. The Yankees are 4-0 in his last four starts.
Knack has a 4.35 ERA in four May starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched. The Dodgers are 0-3 in his last three starts. He has a 7.07 ERA at home compared to 3.52 on the road.
New York has performed better as of late, hitting .249 with a 2.45 ERA over their last ten games compared to Los Angeles hitting .234 with a 3.82 ERA.
The Yankees also have the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.29 compared to 4.01 for the Dodgers.
