Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins (-175, 7.5)
The Twins (11-16) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 11-4 as -200 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-1 as -135 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Angels (12-14) trot out righty Jose Soriano (2-3, 4.34 ERA) and the Twins rebuttal with fellow righty Joe Ryan (1-2, 4.00 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -155 home favorite and Los Angeles a +140 road dog.
Wiseguys aren’t scared off by big chalk and have gotten down hard on the Twins, steaming Minnesota up from -155 to -175. Some shops are even approaching -180.
At Circa, Minnesota is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, a sizable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the Twins at home.
Home favorites, like the Twins here, are 177-93 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 175-97 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 90-41 (69%) with an 11% ROI. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 20-8 (71%) with a 21% ROI.
Additionally, non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 51-23 (69%) with an 11% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 110-49 (69%) with a 5% ROI. Below .500 favorites playing a team who missed the playoffs the previous season are 71-39 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
Minnesota has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Twins have the better bullpen (ERA 3.50 vs 5.02). Minnesota is also hitting .257 at home (13th-best) while Los Angeles is hitting just .214 on the road (22nd).
4:05 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants (-135, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Rangers (15-12) took the opener 2-0, cashing as +110 road dogs. Then the Giants (18-10) bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -145 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Rangers send out righty Jack Leiter (2-0, 0.90 ERA) and the Giants go with fellow righty Jordan Hicks (1-3, 6.59 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 home favorite and Texas a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Giants laying modest chalk at home, steaming San Francisco up from -125 to -135. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a hefty 90% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor.
Home favorites, like the Giants here, are 177-93 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 175-97 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 90-41 (69%) with an 11% ROI. Sunday favorites off a loss are 17-8 (68%) this season with a 16% ROI. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 20-8 (71%) with a 21% ROI.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Giants are 8-4 at home this season. The Rangers are 5-9 on the road.
San Francisco has the edge offensively, hitting .231 with 132 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .223 with only 84 runs scored.
The Giants also have the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.39 (2nd best in MLB), compared to 3.49 for the Rangers (11th).
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (-115, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Cubs (17-11) won the opener 4-0, taking care of business as -160 home favorites. Then the Phillies (14-13) bounced back with a 10-4 win yesterday, cashing as -120 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Phillies hand the ball to righty Aaron Nola (0-5, 6.43 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow righty Jameson Taillon (1-1, 4.73 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening the Phillies a slight -110 or -115 road favorite and the Cubs a +100 or -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cubs to earn a series win, steaming Chicago up to a -115 home favorite. Some shops are even approaching Cubs -120. This signals wiseguy “dog to favorite” or “pick’em to favorite” line movement in favor of Chicago.
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing the Cubs in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Cubs here, are 177-93 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 71-32 (69%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 175-97 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 90-41 (69%) with an 11% ROI. Sunday favorites off a loss are 17-8 (68%) this season with a 16% ROI.
The Cubs are 9-6 at home this season. The Phillies are 5-9 on the road.
Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 173-96 (64%) with a 9% ROI since 2010.
Taillon has a 3.22 ERA in four April starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 22.1 innings pitched. On the other hand, Nola has a 5.96 ERA in four April starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 22.2 innings pitched.
