Sunday Night Baseball: Phillies vs. Cubs
A big city battle is just what the ESPN executives want on Sunday Night Baseball and that is precisely what they’ll get on April 27 with a matchup featuring the Philadelphia Phillies vs. the Chicago Cubs. These are two teams that came into the season with high hopes and one team is reaching, or maybe even exceeding, those expectations at the top of the NL Central standings.
The other enters play five games behind the Mets for NL East supremacy, as a loss here would drop the Phillies back down to .500 through 28 games. The Phils won the middle game of the series last night to set up a rubber match on a cool, and slightly crisp, night in Wrigleyville.
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How to Watch Phillies vs. Cubs
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday April 27, 7:10 p.m. ET
Phillies vs. Cubs MLB Odds
Philadelphia Phillies +100 // Chicago Cubs -120
Total: 8 (-115/-105)
Phillies vs. Cubs Game Preview
Aaron Nola and Jameson Taillon are the listed starters for Game 3 in this series, as the Phillies wrap up their six-game road trip and the Cubs head to Pittsburgh on tomorrow’s off day. Both teams are off on Monday, so we don’t have any sort of good situational angle. Even the Phillies will get home at a reasonable time with the 6 p.m. CT local start.
I’m not surprised that there seems to be a degree of uncertainty from both the bookmakers and bettors on this game as you read into the line. Nola has a prolonged track record of success, but owns a 6.43 ERA with a 4.67 xERA and a 4.89 FIP in five starts over 28 innings. His 3.36 xFIP is a good indicator of where his home run rate sits, as he’s allowing a career-worst 24% HR/FB% and has given up six dingers out of his 34 hits surrendered.
Nola has 31 strikeouts against 11 walks, but his velocity is lagging behind a good bit and he’s had some difficulty throwing first-pitch strikes with a 56.3% F-Strike%. It isn’t a shock to see opposing batters with an .825 OPS after starting the count 1-0, but it is a surprise to see them with a .296 BA and a .356 OBP after a first-pitch strike. Nola has had some unfortunate batted ball luck with a .364 BABIP against, but he is allowing a high rate of hard contact by his career standards.
Then there’s Taillon, who has a 4.73 ERA with a 4.49 xERA and a 4.46 FIP.. He’s more of a fly ball guy than Nola and has allowed five homers out of 25 hits himself. He’s made five starts and his worst one was his first one, allowing six runs on nine hits during a not-so-nice outing against the Diamondbacks. He’s been better since then and the Cubs are hoping for that version in this one, as he has a 3.22 ERA with a 3.66 FIP over his last 22.1 innings.
The Cubs head into this game as the best offense in the NL with a .351 wOBA and a 125 wRC+. Only the Yankees lead them in those two categories. Only the rival Reds lead them among NL teams in those two categories over the last 14 days. The Phillies, meanwhile, have been about a league-average unit over the last two weeks and just a tad better than that for the season.
Both bullpens are in good shape for the series finale, as yesterday’s 10-4 blowout put some of Chicago’s low-leverage relievers in the game and the Phillies were able to use a couple of theirs as well. Each relief corps has had some issues, as the Cubs are 27th in ERA and the Phillies are 29th. The Cubs bullpen walks too many guys and the Phillies bullpen has a .338 BABIP against, which is the highest in the league.
Nola’s woes heading into a start against the NL’s top offense are enough to make me interested in the Cubs. With the 1st 5 price lined the same as the full game, I’ll stave off any late-game shenanigans and suggest Chicago in that manner.
Pick: Cubs 1st 5 (-120)
Phillies vs. Cubs Player Props
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Lefties have done a number on Nola thus far, posting a .305/.397/.593 slash with a .429 wOBA in 68 plate appearances. They’ve hit five of the six home runs that he has allowed. His depressed fastball velocity has not helped, as lefties are teeing off to the tune of a .385 BA and a 1.077 SLG on 11 batted ball events. They’re also hitting his cutter and curveball hard, with average exit velos of 94.6 mph and 93.7 mph. Lefties own a 93.7 mph average EV across the board with a .409 xwOBA.
Tucker is having a big year with a .300/.409/.600 slash and even stronger numbers against just righties with a .316/.436/.592 slash and a .433 wOBA in 76 PA.
