Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-165, 9) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Yankees (6-2) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 9-4 as -180 road favorites then winning again yesterday 10-4 as -165 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Will Warren (0-0, 3.60 ERA) and the Pirates (2-7) counter with lefty Andrew Heaney (0-0, 1.80 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +125 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Bronx Bombers to complete the sweep, steaming the Yankees up from -140 to -165.
At Circa, New York is receiving 56% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet discrepancy in their favor.
The Yankees match several profitable betting systems. Road favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 14-7 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Road favorites with steam 10-cents or more who also made the playoffs the previous season are 11-5 (69%) with a 14% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 23-5 (82%) with a 37% ROI this season.
The Yankees have a big edge at the plate, hitting .299 with 25 homers and 72 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .198 with only 6 homers and 27 runs scored.
New York is hitting .325 against lefties this season, ranking 3rd-best in MLB.
1:35 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-180, 7.5) at Washington Nationals
These teams have split the first two games of this three-game set, with the Diamondbacks (5-4) taking the opener 6-4 as -165 road favorites and then the Nationals (2-6) bouncing back with a 4-3 win yesterday as +115 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Diamondbacks start righty Corbin Burnes (0-0, 4.15 ERA) and the Nationals tap fellow righty Trevor Williams (0-0, 5.40 ERA). Originally, righty Brad Lord (0-0, 4.50 ERA) was scheduled to start for the Nats but he was a late scratch, with Williams taking his place.
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -165 road favorite and Washington a +150 home dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Diamondbacks up from -165 to -180.
At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 91% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 86% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the Snakes.
Favorites off a loss, like the Diamondbacks here, are 29-15 (66%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Arizona has correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Snakes have the better offense, hitting .261 with 54 runs scored compared to the Nats hitting .216 with only 29 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are also hitting .290 against righties this season, ranking 3rd-best in MLB. Washington is hitting .218 against righties, ranking 20th.
1:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets (-145, 7.5)
The Mets (5-3) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-0 as -140 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-2 as -135 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays (5-4) send out righty Bowden Francis (1-0, 3.00 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with lefty David Peterson (1-0, 3.00).
This line opened with New York listed as a -130 home favorite and Toronto a +115 road dog. Wiseguys seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” and have steamed the Mets up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, New York is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the Mets at home.
Home favorites are 57-27 (68%) with a 13% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 29-12 (71%) with a 16% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 16-5 (76%) with a 28% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 23-5 (82%) with a 37% ROI this season.
The Mets have additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
