Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (-135, 8.5)
The Braves (50-67) have taken three of the first four games in this extended five-game series, sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader 7-1 as a -120 home favorite and winning again 8-6 as a -110 home pick’em.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Marlins (57-60) hand the ball to righty Cal Quantrill (4-9, 5.21 ERA) and the Braves counter with lefty Joey Wentz (2-3, 5.34 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -120 home favorite and Miami a +100 road dog.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this roughly 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Braves jump up from -120 to -135.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 15-cent adjustment we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are laying the short chalk with the Braves at home.
The Braves have pitched better than the Marlins over their last ten games, sporting a team ERA of 4.90 compared to 6.00 for Miami.
Atlanta also has an edge in terms of bullpen ERA (4.04 vs. 4.11).
The Marlins are batting just .229 against lefties this season, ranking 22nd in MLB.
4:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants (-155, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Giants (59-58) won the opener 5-0, taking care of business as -170 home favorites. Then the Nationals (46-70) bounced back with a 4-2 win yesterday, coming through as +140 road dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Nationals send out lefty MacKenzie Gore (4-12, 4.29 ERA) and the Giants go with righty Justin Verlander (1-8, 4.29 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 home favorite and Washington a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Giants to earn a victory and take the series, steaming San Francisco up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Giants are taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Francisco is receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 79% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. The Giants have additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is expected to win.
Verlander has pitched well as of late, allowing only one earned run in his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Gore has struggled recently, posting an 8.67 ERA over his last 6 starts.
The Giants are 29-27 at home. The Nationals are 24-34 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (-190, 7.5)
The Mariners (65-53) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-2 as -130 home favorites and winning again yesterday 7-4 as -145 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Rays (57-61) go with righty Adrian Houser (6-3, 2.54 ERA) and the Mariners tap fellow righty Bryan Woo (9-6, 3.02 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -175 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +150 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Mariners to complete the sweep, steaming Seattle up from -175 to -190. Some books are even approaching -200.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are receiving over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating lopsided support from both sharps and the betting public.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. The Mariners have additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is expected to win.
The Mariners have the more productive bats, hitting 169 homers and scoring 541 runs compared to the Rays hitting 130 homers and scoring 528 runs.
Woo has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts. He is 5-2 with a 2.17 ERA at home.
Seattle is 8-2 over their last ten games with a 3.19 team ERA. Tampa Bay is 3-7 over their last ten games with a 4.03 team ERA.
The Mariners are 36-25 at home. The Rays are 25-31 on the road.
