Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:37 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (-120, 8)
The Blue Jays (73-51) have taken the first two games in this three-game series, winning the opener 6-5 as a -110 home pick’em and then winning again yesterday 14-2 as -180 home favorites.
In this afternoon series finale, the Rangers (61-63) hand the ball to righty Nathan Eovaldi (10-3, 1.71 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with fellow righty Jose Berrios (9-4, 3.74 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -115 road favorite and Toronto a -105 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays, steaming Toronto from a -105 home dog to a -120 home favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Blue Jays.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are taking in 59% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected smart money in their favor.
Short home favorites -140 or less off win with a line move in their direction are 54-34 (61%) with an 11% ROI since July 1st. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 87-48 (64%) with a 5% ROI.
Toronto is 26-13 (67%) with a 13% ROI as a home favorite, the 3rd best home favorite in MLB.
The Blue Jays have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Toronto has the better bats, hitting .270 with 145 homers and 611 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .231 with 128 homers and 502 runs scored.
The Blue Jays are 42-20 at home. The Rangers are 24-37 on the road.
2:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros (-135, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Orioles (56-67) won the opener 7-0, cruising as +185 road dogs. Then the Astros (69-54) bounced back with a 5-4 win in extras yesterday, cashing as -140 home favorites.
In this afternoon series finale, the Orioles send out righty Dean Kremer (8-9, 4.17 ERA) and the Astros go with fellow righty Cristian Javier (1-0, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened opened with Houston listed as a -130 home favorite and Baltimore a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Astros to earn a victory and take the series, pushing Houston up from -130 to -135, with some shops reaching as high as -145.
At DraftKings, the Astros are taking in 72% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Houston is receiving 93% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous year and are receiving 5-cents of line movement or more are 140-72 (66%) with a 3% ROI this season. Home favorites -150 or less who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 71-35 (67%) with a 19% ROI.
Houston has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Kremer is 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA on the road compared to 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA at home.
The Astros are hitting .254 against righties (6th best in MLB). The Orioles are hitting .242 (22nd).
Houston is 38-26 at home. Baltimore is 26-37 on the road.
3:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 13) at Colorado Rockies
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Diamondbacks (60-64) won the opener 8-2, taking care of business as -175 road favorites. Then the Rockies (34-89) bounced back to win the next two games 4-3 as +165 home dogs and 10-7 as +145 home dogs.
In this afternoon series finale, the Diamondbacks go with righty Nabil Crismatt, who is making his 2025 debut. He has gone 5-6 with 3.96 ERA in AAA this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies tap fellow righty Antonio Senzatela (4-14, 7.34 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -130 road favorite and Colorado a +110 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Diamondbacks to bounce back and earn a series split, steaming Arizona up from -130 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 92% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss receiving 10-cents of line movement or more in their direction are 67-37 (64%) with an 8% ROI this season.
The Diamondbacks have the edge at the plate, hitting .250 with 174 homers and 613 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .239 with 128 homers and 463 runs scored.
Arizona is hitting .253 against righties (10th). Colorado is hitting .240 (23rd).
Senzatela is 3-6 with a 7.58 ERA at home.
Arizona is 8-4 against Colorado this season.
Fading the Rockies has resulted in a record of 89-34 (72%) with a 5% ROI.
