Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-140, 6.5)
The Mariners (53-45) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-1 as -150 home favorites and winning again yesterday 7-6 in extra innings as -135 home favorites.
In today’s series finale, the Astros (56-42) send out righty Hunter Brown (9-4, 2.43 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty Bryan Woo (8-4, 2.75 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -115 home favorite and Houston a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mariners laying short chalk at home, steaming Seattle up from -115 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are receiving 59% of moneyline bets and a hefty 82% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in favor of Seattle finishing off the sweep.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a super low total game (6.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is favored to win.
The Mariners have the more explosive bats, hitting 138 homers and scoring 464 runs compared to the Astros hitting 110 homers and scoring 425 runs.
Woo has a 1.35 ERA in two July starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched. He is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA at home.
The Mariners have played far better than the Astros lately, going 7-3 in their last ten games and hitting .257 with a 3.99 ERA compared to Houston going 3-7 and hitting .228 with a 4.83 ERA.
The Mariners are 27-21 at home. The Astros are 23-23 on the road.
Seattle is 4-1 against Houston this season.
4:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 9)
The Diamondbacks (49-50) have taken the first two games in this three-game series, winning the opener 7-3 as a -110 home pick’em and winning again 10-1 yesterday as +115 home dogs.
In today’s series finale, the Cardinals (51-48) tap righty Miles Mikolas (5-6, 4.94 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Merrill Kelly (8-5, 3.34 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -145 home favorite and St. Louis a +125 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the modest chalk with the Snakes at home, steaming Arizona up from -145 to -155.
At Circa, the Diamondbacks are only taking in 40% of moneyline bets but nearly 50% of moneyline dollars, indicating a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and reverse line move in their direction.
The Snakes have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Arizona has the better bats, hitting .253 with 143 homers and 510 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .252 with only 99 homers and 448 runs scored.
Kelly has a 2.50 ERA in three July starts, giving up only 5 earned runs in 18 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Mikolas has a 6.17 ERA in two July starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched.
7 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-190, 7) at Texas Rangers
The Rangers (50-49) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-0 as -115 home favorites and winning again yesterday 4-1 as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Tigers (59-40) hand the ball to lefty Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) and the Rangers go with fellow southpaw Jacob Latz (2-1, 3.00 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -150 road favorite and Texas a +130 home dog.
Originally, righty Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 1.58 ERA) was scheduled to get the start for Texas. However, he was scratched with back tightness. Once the move was made to go with Latz instead of Eovaldi, we saw a big adjustment toward the Tigers who have now gotten steamed up from -150 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Detroit has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is favored to win.
Detroit has the better bats, hitting .250 with 125 homers and 483 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .231 with 104 homers and 399 runs scored.
The Tigers are 14-3 in Skubal’s last 17 starts.
The Rangers are only hitting .218 against lefties, ranking 28th in MLB.
