Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
Top MLB Resources:
2:15 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (-130, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cardinals (54-52) took the opener 3-0, cashing as +110 home dogs. Then the Padres (56-49) bounced back with a 3-1 win yesterday, coming through as +120 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres start righty Stephen Kolek (3-5, 4.28 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to fellow righty Michael McGreevey (2-1, 3.49 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -120 home favorite and San Diego a +100 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which team to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Cardinals jump up from -120 to -130.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 10-cent move we can infer that the bigger wiseguy wagers are backing the home chalk.
Sweet spot home favorites -125 to -140 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 53-34 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season. Short home favorites -120 to -140 off a loss playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 34-19 (64%) with a 13% ROI.
St. Louis has the more productive bats, hitting .252 with 103 homers and 474 runs scored compared to San Diego hitting .247 with 88 homers and 417 runs scored.
McGreevey pitched well his last time out, going 7 innings and allowing only 1 earned run in a 6-2 win over the Rockies.
Meanwhile, Kolek has a 7.36 ERA in two July starts, giving up 9 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. San Diego is 0-7 in his last 7 starts.
The Cardinals are 31-21 at home. The Padres are 25-31 on the road.
2:35 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers (-120, 9)
The Rangers (55-50) have won the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, taking the opener 8-3 as -155 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-5 in extra innings as a -110 home pick’em.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Braves (44-59) send out righty Bryce Elder (4-6, 5.63 ERA) and the Rangers turn to fellow righty Jack Leiter (6-6, 4.27 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -115 home favorite and Atlanta a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Rangers (7-1 since the All-Star Break) laying short chalk at home, driving Texas up from -115 to -120. Some books are even creeping up to -125.
At DraftKings, the Rangers are taking in 62% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.
Non-division home favorites off a win with line movement in their favor are 176-99 (64%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sunday Interleague home favorites off a win are 17-10 (63%) with an 8% ROI. The Rangers are 28-8 (78%) with a 28% ROI as a home favorite, the best home chalk team in MLB.
Leiter is 4-2 with a 3.94 ERA at home this season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in three of his last four starts.
Meanwhile, Elder has a 4.86 ERA in two July starts, giving up 9 earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched. He is 2-3 with a 4.71 ERA on the road.
The Rangers are 8-2 over their last ten games with a 1.95 team ERA. On the other hand, the Braves are 3-7 over their last ten games with a team ERA of 6.55.
Texas is 33-20 at home. Atlanta is 18-33 on the road, the 4th worst road team in MLB.
4:07 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-165, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Mariners (56-49) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 7-2 yesterday as -135 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Mariners hand the ball to righty Logan Gilbert (3-3, 3.07 ERA) and the Angels (50-55) counter with fellow righty Kyle Hendricks (5-7, 4.92 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -160 road favorite and Los Angeles a +135 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the wood with the Mariners, driving Seattle up from -160 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Seattle is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Sunday road favorites are 54-38 (59%) with a 2% ROI this season. Seattle is 4-1 (80%) with a 46% ROI as a Sunday road favorite and 10-3 (77%) with a 36% ROI as a Sunday favorite in general.
Seattle has the better bats, hitting .247 with 483 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .234 with 454 runs scored.
The Mariners have played better as of late, going 6-4 over their last ten games with a 3.51 team ERA compared to the Angels going 3-7 over their last ten games with a 4.45 team ERA. Seattle also has a big edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.81 compared to 5.04 for the Los Angeles (4th worst in MLB).
Gilbert has a 2.08 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 21.2 innings pitched. Seattle is 5-1 in his last six starts.
Meanwhile, Hendricks has a 6.59 ERA in three July starts, giving up 10 earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched.
