Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:05 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants (-160, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Red Sox (40-38) stole the opener 7-5, cashing as +110 road dogs. Then the Giants (43-34) bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -125 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Red Sox hand the ball to righty Lucas Giolito (3-1, 4.73 ERA) and the Giants turn to lefty Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -150 home favorite and Boston a +130 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Giants to earn a victory and take the series, steaming San Francisco up from -150 to -160.
At Circa, the Giants are taking in 71% of moneyline bets but a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home chalk.
Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Giants here, are 57-25 (70%) with a 13% ROI this season.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Ray is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA at home this season. The Giants are 12-3 in Ray’s 15 starts overall.
The Giants are 24-14 at home this season. The Red Sox are 18-21 on the road.
4:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-115, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Astros (44-33) won the opener 3-2 in extra innings, squeaking by as -175 road favorites. Then the Angels (37-39) clawed back with a 9-1 win yesterday, coming through as -130 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Astros send out righty Ryan Gusto (4-3, 4.31 ERA) and the Angels turn to fellow righty Kyle Hendricks (5-6, 4.79 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -125 road favorite and Los Angeles a +105 home dog.
The public is laying the short chalk with the Astros. However, despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Houston fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Angels, as the line has moved toward Los Angeles (+105 to -105) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Angels are receiving only 29% of moneyline bets but an overwhelming 90% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team.
Los Angeles has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. The Angels also have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Hendricks has pitched well in the month of June, boasting a 3.00 ERA in three starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. The Angels are 3-0 in his last three starts.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Phillies (46-31) dominated the opener 10-2, cruising as -190 home favorites. The the Mets (46-31) bounced back with an 11-4 win yesterday, coming through a -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Mets tap lefty David Peterson (5-2, 2.60 ERA) and the Phillies rebuttal with fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo (6-3, 4.41 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Phillies creep up from -110 to -120.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 10-cent move we can infer that the wiseguy smart money is backing the Phillies at home.
At Circa, Philadelphia is only taking in 46% of moneyline bets but a lopsided 81% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season who also receive line movement in their direction are 161-76 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 78-40 (66%) with an 11% ROI.
Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 176-99 (64%) with an 8% ROI since 2010.
The Phillies are hitting .261 against lefties (6th best in MLB) compared to .238 for the Mets (15th). The Phillies are also hitting .274 at home (3rd) compared to the Mets hitting .244 on the road (13th).
Philadelphia is 25-14 at home. The Mets are 19-21 on the road.
