Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 9.5) at Cincinnati Reds
The Reds (32-33) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-3 in extra innings as -105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 13-1 as -105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Diamondbacks (31-33) hand the ball to righty Zac Gallen (4-7, 5.13 ERA) and the Reds counter with fellow righty Brady Singer (6-4, 4.66 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -135 road favorite and Cincinnati a +115 home dog.
The public is leaning toward the Diamondbacks to earn a victory and avoid the sweep. However, despite Arizona receiving 58% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Snakes fall from -135 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Reds, as the line has moved in their direction (+115 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Reds are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home dog.
Short dogs +120 or less are 104-94 (53%) with an 8% ROI and +16 units won since May 1st. If the short dog is also coming off a win, they improve to 53-46 (54%) with a 10% ROI.
The Reds have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Singer has a 3.62 ERA at home compared to 5.74 on the road. Meanwhile, Gallen has given up four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts.
The Reds have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.92 compared to 5.31 for the Diamondbacks, fourth worst in MLB. Cincinnati has pitched far better as of late, posting a 3.27 ERA over their last ten games compared to 6.36 for Arizona.
1:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers (-115, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Tigers (42-24) won the opener 3-1, taking care of business as -200 home favorites. Then the Cubs (40-24) bounced back with a 6-1 win yesterday, cashing as -120 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cubs out righty Cade Horton (3-0, 3.51 ERA) and the Tigers turn to fellow righty Jack Flaherty (4-6, 3.72 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -140 home favorite and Chicago a +120 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs getting plus money, dropping Chicago down from +120 to +100. Some shops are even moving to Cubs -105. Essentially, smart Cubs money has pushed this game down toward a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 60% of moneyline bets but a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road team.
Short road dogs +120 or less off a win are 30-23 (57%) with a 17% ROI and +9 units won since May 1st.
Chicago is 5-0 in Horton’s five starts this season. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all five starts, posting a 3.07 ERA on the road compared to 4.09 at home.
2:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-135, 9) at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox (22-43) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 7-2 as +115 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 4-1 as +120 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals (33-32) go with righty Michael Lorenzen (3-6, 5.12 ERA) and the White Sox turn to fellow righty Mike Vasil (3-2, 1.89 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -160 road favorite and Chicago a +135 home dog.
The public says there’s no way the White Sox win again and complete the sweep. However, despite receiving 74% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Royals tumble from -160 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the White Sox, as the line has moved in favor of Chicago (+135 to +110) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, Chicago is receiving 55% of moneyline bets but 95% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the home dog out in Vegas.
The White Sox have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Chicago also has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
Short dogs +130 or less off a win, like the White Sox here, are 40-33 (55%) with a 16% ROI and +12 units won since May 1st.
Vasil has a 1.13 ERA at home compared to 3.21 on the road. Meanwhile, Lorenzen has a 6.37 ERA on the road compared to 3.00 at home. He has a 7.23 ERA over his last six starts, giving up 25 earned runs in 31.1 innings pitched.
