Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today. PS- Happy Mother’s Day! Have you called your mom yet?
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1:35 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles (-130, 7.5)
The Orioles (26-12) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 4-2 as -130 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-4 in extra innings as -150 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Diamondbacks (18-22) hand the ball to righty Zac Gallen (4-2, 2.84 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Dean Kremer (3-2, 3.57 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -120 home favorite and Arizona a +110 road dog. Sharps are betting on the Orioles to earn the sweep, driving Baltimore up from -120 to -130. The Orioles are receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in addition to a ten-cent steam move in their favor. Sunday home teams are 50-39 (56%) with a 4% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 50-34 (60%) with a 2% ROI. The Orioles also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Baltimore is 14-7 at home. Arizona is 9-12 on the road. The Orioles also have the better bullpen (ERA 3.26 vs 4.56).
1:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers (-120, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Astros (14-25) won the opener 5-2, taking care of business as -145 road favorites. Then the Tigers (20-19) bounced back with an 8-2 win yesterday, cashing as -155 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Astros start righty Justin Verlander (1-1, 4.43 ERA) and the Tigers go with fellow righty Jack Flaherty (0-2, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 road favorite and Detroit a +100 home dog. Despite their poor performance to start the season, the public is laying the chalk with the Astros who have been a juggernaut for several years and have Verlander on the bump. However, despite 60% of moneyline bets backing Houston we’ve seen this line completely flip to Detroit +100 to -120. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the Tigers, with pros backing the unpopular home team and triggering a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Sunday home teams who missed the playoffs the previous year, like the Tigers here, are 31-23 (57%) with a 10% ROI this season. Detroit has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Tigers have the better bullpen as well (ERA 2.89 vs 4.45).
2:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 9)
The Brewers (24-15) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 7-1 as +120 home dogs, taking the second game 11-2 as -125 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-3 as -185 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cardinals (15-24) trot out righty Miles Mikolas (2-5, 6.43 ERA) and the Brewers rebuttal with fellow righty Bryse Wilson (2-1, 2.40 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -140 home favorite and St. Louis a +125 road dog. Sharps aren’t outsmarting themselves and they’re laying the wood with the Beer Makers to complete the sweep, steaming Milwaukee up from -140 to -155. The Brewers are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling support from both wiseguys and Average Joes in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Milwaukee has a big edge at the plate, hitting .255 with 48 homers and 200 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .218 with only 28 homers and 132 runs scored. The Brewers are 10-7 at home. St. Louis is 9-13 on the road. Milwaukee is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .245 with a 3.45 ERA. St. Louis is 1-9 over their last ten games, hitting .221 with a 5.86 ERA. The Cardinals are just 2-6 in Mikolas’ eight starts this season. Mikolas pitched against the Brewers on April 20th and gave up 9 hits and 5 earned runs over 4.2 innings in a 12-5 loss. Meanwhile, Wilson has a 1.93 ERA at home over four games.
