Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-110, 8) at Texas Rangers
The Rangers (25-22) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 5-1 yesterday as -120 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Astros (23-22) send out lefty Framber Valdez (2-4, 3.54 ERA) and the Rangers trot out righty Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.34 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -135 road favorite and Texas a +115 home dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with the Astros, who are receiving 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Houston plummet from -135 to -110. This signals massive wiseguy reverse line movement on the Rangers as the line has moved bigly in their favor (+115 to -105) despite being the unpopular play. Essentially, sharp Rangers money is driving this game down toward a pick’em.
At Circa, Texas is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the home team.
The Rangers are 17-9 at home. The Astros are 8-13 on the road.
Valdez has a 4.20 ERA on the road compared to 2.77 at home.
Texas has pitched better as of late, sporting a team ERA of 2.35 over their last ten games compared to 3.27 for Houston.
1:35 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-125, 9.5) at Boston Red Sox
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Braves (23-23) took the opener 4-2, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Red Sox (23-24) bounced back with a 7-6 walk off win last night, taking care of business as -120 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Braves hand the ball to righty Spencer Schwellenbach (2-3, 3.31 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Brayan Bello (2-0, 2.33 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -130 road favorite and Boston a +115 home dog.
Sharps have quieted sided with the plus money Red Sox, dropping Boston down from +115 to +110. Some shops are even down to +105.
At DraftKings, Boston is taking in 48% of moneyline bets and 63% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home dog.
The Red Sox have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Boston has the superior offense, hitting .255 with 59 homers and 230 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .243 with 49 homers and 185 runs scored.
The Red Sox are 12-10 at home. The Braves are 8-16 on the road.
Schwellenbach has a 4.86 ERA on the road compared to 2.63 at home. Meanwhile, Bello has a 1.69 ERA in three May starts, giving up only 3 earned runs in 16 innings pitched. He has a 1.10 ERA at home compared to 4.22 on the road.
1:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds (-130, 9)
The Reds (23-24) have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 5-4 as +105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 4-1 as +100 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Guardians (25-20) start righty Luis Ortiz (2-4, 4.78 ERA) and the Reds turn to lefty Andrew Abbott (2-0, 2.10 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -120 home favorite and Cleveland a +110 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Reds to complete the sweep, steaming Cincinnati up from -120 to -130.
At Circa, the Reds are receiving 57% of moneyline bets but a whopping 89% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing Cincinnati out in Vegas.
Home favorites with line movement in their direction are 198-109 (65%) with a 4% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 29-16 (64%) with a 10% ROI.
Abbott has a 0.60 ERA in three May starts, giving up only 1 earned run in 15 innings pitched. He has a 1.20 ERA at home compared to 3.00 on the road.
Meanwhile, Ortiz has a 4.76 ERA in two May starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched. He has a 7.29 ERA on the road compared to 2.42 at home.
The Reds are hitting .241 over their last ten games compared to .215 for the Guardians.
