Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-140, 8.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates (19-34) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 2-1 yesterday as -105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Brewers (25-28) hand the ball to righty Logan Anderson (3-0, 1.69 ERA) and the Pirates counter with lefty Bailey Falter (3-3, 3.50 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +100 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Brewers to earn a series sweep, steaming Milwaukee up from -120 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Brewers are taking in 85% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” support in favor of the road chalk.
The Brewers have betting system value as a favorite off a loss and a non-division favorite with steam 10-cents or more in their direction.
Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .233 with 45 homers and 226 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .222 with 36 homers and 159 runs scored.
The Brewers are hitting .244 on the road (13th in MLB) while the Pirates are only hitting .236 at home (24th).
Henderson has only given up 3 earned runs in 16 innings pitched this season. Milwaukee is 3-0 in his three starts.
1:35 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-160, 8) at Washington Nationals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Giants (30-22) won the opener 4-0, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Nationals (24-28) clawed back with a 3-0 win yesterday, coming through as +135 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants start lefty Robbie Ray (6-0, 2.67 ERA) and the Nationals go with righty Michael Soroka (1-2, 5.95 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -150 road favorite and Washington a +130 home dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Giants to earn a victory and take the series, driving San Francisco up from -150 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 44% of moneyline bets and 47% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road favorite.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants have a big edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.61 (best in MLB) compared to 6.24 for the Nationals (2nd worst).
Ray has a 1.38 ERA in four May starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. San Francisco has gone 9-1 in his ten starts.
Meanwhile, Soroka has a 7.20 ERA at home.
San Francisco is 14-9 in day games. Washington is 11-13.
1:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-125, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cubs (31-21) won the opener 13-6, taking care of business as -115 road favorites. Then the Reds (26-27) bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, cashing as -105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cubs start righty Ben Brown (3-3, 5.44 ERA) and the Reds go with lefty Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.22 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Wiseguys have pounced on Chicago at a coin flip price, steaming the Cubs up from -110 to -125.
At DraftKings, Chicago is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are taking in 58% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Cubs.
Chicago has bounce back betting system value as a favorite off a loss and a favorite receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their direction.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .263 with 75 homers and 310 runs scored compared to the Reds only hitting .244 with 54 homers and 240 runs scored.
Brown has a 3.74 ERA on the road compared to 6.93 ERA at home. Meanwhile, Lodolo has a 6.33 ERA at home compared to 1.45 on the road.
Chicago is hitting .305 in their last ten games while Cincinnati is hitting .280.
The Cubs are hitting .274 against lefties this season, 4th best in MLB.
