Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 7)
The Rays (16-18) have won the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, taking Friday’s opener 10-8 as -110 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-1 as -110 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Mets (16-17) go with righty Luis Severino (2-2, 2.31 ERA) and the Rays send out fellow righty Ryan Pepiot (3-2, 3.12 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -125 home favorite and New York a +105 road dog. The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with Tampa Bay at home. However, despite receiving 55% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Rays fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets to avoid the sweep, with pros grabbing the plus money with New York (+105 to -105). To put it another way, smart Mets money is pushing this game toward a pick’em. The Mets are receiving 45% of moneyline bets but 75% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split in their favor. Pepiot has a 0.00 ERA on the road but a 4.76 ERA at home. Severino has given up three earned runs of less in all six of his starts this season. The Mets have the far better bullpen, sporting an ERA of 2.85 (7th best) while the Rays rank dead last (5.30). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 7.5 to 7. The under is receiving 40% of bets but 66% of money, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.
4:07 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics (-135, 7.5)
The Athletics (17-17) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 3-1 as -160 home favorites and then winning again on Saturday 20-4 as -130 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Marlins (9-26) start righty Sixto Sanchez (0-1, 8.36 ERA) and the Athletics counter with fellow righty Joe Boyle (2-4, 6.08 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -120 home favorite and Miami a +110 road dog. Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have gotten down hard on the Athletics to complete the sweep, steaming Oakland up from -120 to -135. The Athletics are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling one-way support from both Pros and Joes. Interleague favorites off a win, like the A’s here, are 42-27 (61%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sunday home teams in Interleague play are 16-9 (64%) with a 19% ROI. Oakland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Oakland is 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .246 with a 3.13 ERA. Miami is 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .238 with a 6.30 ERA. The Marlins also just traded away their leadoff hitter, Luis Arraez, to the Padres in exchange for several prospects.
4:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 9)
The Padres (18-18) have dominated the first two games of this three game series, cruising 7-1 in Friday’s opener as -115 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 13-1 as +105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres hand the ball to righty Matt Waldron (1-3, 4.35 ERA) and the Diamondbacks (14-20) go with fellow righty Ryne Nelson (1-2, 4.60 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 home favorite and San Diego a +105 road dog. Pros have jumped on the Padres at a cheap dog price, moving San Diego from +105 to -110. Essentially, sharp San Diego money has driven this line down to a pick’em. The Padres are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, signaling both public and sharp support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. San Diego has the better bats, hitting .258 with 39 homers and 183 runs scored compared to Arizona hitting .245 with 30 homers and 164 runs scored. The Padres are 10-6 on the road. Arizona is 8-10 at home. Waldron has a 7.98 ERA at home but a 1.10 ERA on the road. Nelson is making his first start since returning from the injured list with (elbow). Nelson had a 5.19 ERA in two home starts before landing on the injured list. The Padres are hitting .275 vs righties this season, the best in MLB. The Diamondbacks are hitting .212 against righties, dead last. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 9.5 to 9.
