Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 6-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8.5)
These American League opponents have split the first two games of this three-game series. The Angels (7-4) took the opener 4-3, cashing as +150 road dogs. Then the Rays (5-6) bounced back with a 5-4 win yesterday, taking care of business as -150 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Angels hand the ball to righty Jose Soriano (1-1, 3.65 ERA) and the Rays turn to fellow righty Zach Littell (0-2, 4.15 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -140 home favorite and Los Angeles a +125 road dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with the Rays. However, despite Tampa Bay receiving 60% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve actually seen the Rays fall from -140 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the plus money Angels, as the Los Angeles payout has gotten smaller (+125 to +105) even though the majority of tickets are on Tampa Bay.
At DraftKings, the Angels are receiving 40% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Angels are taking in 56% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Los Angeles.
The Angels have the more explosive offense, hitting 18 homers with 54 runs scored compared to the Rays hitting 8 homers with 42 runs scored.
Sharps are also banking on a lower scoring game, as the under is being juiced 8.5 (-115) and has even fallen to 8 at some shops. At Circa, the under is receiving 20% of bets but a whopping 90% of dollars, a massive smart money discrepancy.
2:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (-120, 8.5)
The Royals (6-6) have taken two of the first three games in this four game series, winning the opener 4-2 as -115 home favorites and winning the second game 2-1 as -120 home favorites. Then the Twins (4-8) bounced back with a 4-0 win yesterday, cashing as -105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Twins send out righty Bailey Ober (0-1, 12.15 ERA) and the Royals rebuttal with fellow righty Michael Wacha (0-2, 4.66 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -125 home favorite and Minnesota a +105 road dog.
The public is all over the Royals laying short chalk at home. However, despite 72% of moneyline back backing Kansas City at DraftKings we’ve seen the Royals tumble from -125 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog Twins, as the line has dropped in their favor (+105 to +100) despite being the unpopular side.
Minnesota has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. The Twins also have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Wiseguys are also expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has been bet up from 8 to 8.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 52% of bets and 73% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 50% of bets and 64% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split on the over.
3:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 10.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Brewers (7-5) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 7-1 as -165 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 17-2 as -145 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Brewers start newly acquired righty Quinn Priester, who is making his 2025 debut, and the Rockies (2-9) go with fellow righty Ryan Feltner (0-0, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a short -110 road favorite and Colorado a +100 home dog. Sharps have jumped on the red-hot Brewers at a relative coin-flip price, steaming Milwaukee up from -110 to -125.
At Circa, the Brewers are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars, indicating an indecisive public but also respected smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.
Non-division road favorites -135 or less are 1,683-1,339 (56%) with a 3% ROI since 2019.
Milwaukee has a big edge at the plate, hitting .246 with 15 homers and 66 runs scored compared to Colorado hitting .232 with only 8 homers and 33 runs scored.
Sharps have also leaned under, as the under 10.5 is being juiced up to -115 and has even fallen to 10 at some places. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 38% of bets but 47% of dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers expecting a lower-scoring game.
The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from right center.
