Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (-185, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Red Sox (14-12) won the opener 8-3, taking care of business as -120 home favorites. Then the Mariners (13-11) bounced back with an 8-5 win yesterday, cashing as +120 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mariners send out righty Bryan Woo (2-1, 3.12 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with lefty Garrett Crochet (2-1, 1.13 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -165 home favorite and Seattle a +145 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Red Sox to earn the series win, steaming Boston up from -165 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Red Sox at Fenway.
Home favorites are 163-81 (67%) with an 11% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 65-26 (71%) with a 21% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 84-32 (72%) with a 17% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 159-85 (65%) with an 8% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 99-43 (70%) with a 6% ROI.
Boston has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting .247 with 121 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .228 with 109 runs scored.
Crochet has a 0.67 ERA in four April starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 27 innings pitched.
Boston is 8-5 at home this season. Seattle is 5-6 on the road.
3:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-145, 7.5)
The Giants (16-9) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 4-2 last night as -145 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Brewers (13-12) hand the ball to righty Tobias Myers, who is making his season debut after going 9-6 with a 3.00 ERA in 2024. Meanwhile, the Giants tap fellow righty Landen Roupp (2-1, 4.09 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 home favorite and Milwaukee a +115 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Giants laying modest chalk at home, steaming San Francisco up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 63% of moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Giants at home.
Home favorites are 163-81 (67%) with an 11% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 84-32 (72%) with a 17% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 159-85 (65%) with an 8% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 45-19 (70%) with a 13% ROI.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.69 (4th best) compared to 5.07 for the Brewers (6th worst).
The Giants are 6-3 at home this season. The Brewers are 4-8 on the road.
