Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only five games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (-140, 7)
The Astros (2-4) just got swept by the Giants at home, losing yesterday’s series finale 6-3 as -165 home favorites. On the other hand, the Twins (2-4) just took two of three against the White Sox, taking yesterday’s series finale 6-1 as -185 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series opener, the Astros hand the ball to righty Hunter Brown (0-1, 3.00 ERA) and the Twins counter with fellow righty Joe Ryan (0-0, 1.80 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -120 home favorite and Houston a +105 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Twins laying short chalk at home, steaming Minnesota up from -120 to -140.
This movement is especially notable because the public is playing the Astros as a plus-money dog (56% of moneyline bets at DraftKings), yet the line has jumped further in the direction of the Twins. This indicates sharp “Fade the Trendy Dog” reverse line movement in favor of Minnesota.
At Circa, the Twins are only taking in 48% of moneyline bets but a hefty 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy.
Home favorites are 40-20 (67%) with an 11% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 10-cents or more in their direction are 16-2 (89%) with a 44% ROI this season.
The Twins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
7:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees (-120, 10)
The Diamondbacks (4-2) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague Series, winning the opener 7-5 as -125 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-3 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Diamondbacks send out righty Merrill Kelly (1-0, 1.69 ERA) and the Yankees go with fellow righty Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 13.50 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds. Wiseguys have sided with the Yankees to avoid the sweep, steaming New York up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 79% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Yankees are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Bronx Bombers at home.
Teams that have lost the first two games of a three-game series and then are favored in the series finale are 144-82 (64%) with a 7% ROI since 2022. Favorites off a loss are 22-12 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 13-5 (72%) with a 20% ROI this season and 144-84 (63%) with a 4% ROI since 2024.
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 9.5 to 10. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 58% of bets and 87% of dollars. The forecast calls for low 70s with 8-10 MPH winds blowing out to left center, making this a “windy over” system match.
7:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 8)
The Reds (2-4) just dropped two of three against the Rangers, falling 1-0 in yesterday’s series finale as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Brewers (2-4) just took two of three against the Royals, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-2 in extra innings as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Reds tap lefty Nick Lodolo (1-0, 3.00 ERA) and the Brewers rebuttal with fellow southpaw Nestor Cortes (0-1, 36.00 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at both DraftKings and Circa we’ve seen the Brewers move from -110 to -120.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the action is balanced and the oddsmakers have no incentive to move the number. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the Brew Crew at home.
Home favorites are 40-20 (67%) with an 11% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 20-7 (74%) with a 21% ROI this season.
