Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-190, 7.5)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Giants (61-66) took the opener 4-3, coming through as +125 road dogs. Then the Padres (71-56) bounced back with a 5-1 win as -190 home favorites on Tuesday and an 8-1 win last night as -140 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Giants hand the ball to righty Justin Verlander (1-9, 4.32 ERA) and the Padres turn to fellow righty Dylan Cease (5-11, 4.61 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -170 home favorite and San Francisco a +145 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the hefty chalk and have laid the wood with the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -170 to -190.
At Circa, the Padres are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home team.
Thursday home favorites -175 or more are 19-7 (73%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win with a line move in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season are 151-82 (65%) with a 3% ROI.
The Padres are 32-16 (67%) with a 10% ROI as a home favorite, the 3rd best home favorite in MLB. When favored and receiving line movement in their direction the Padres are 22-11 (67%) with a 10% ROI.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Padres have the better bats, hitting .251 with 531 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .232 with 511 runs scored.
Cease has a 3.14 ERA in three August starts. He is 5-3 with a 3.61 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-16 in Verlander’s 21 starts this season.
The Padres are hitting .255 against righties (6th best in MLB) while the Giants are hitting .239 (25th).
San Diego is 40-21 at home. San Francisco is 31-33 on the road.
The Padres are 9-3 against the Giants this season.
7:15 p.m. ET Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (-120, 8.5)
The Astros (69-58) just got swept by the Tigers, losing yesterday’s series finale 7-2 as -115 road favorites. On the other hand, the Orioles (59-67) just swept a two-game series against the Red Sox, winning the series finale 4-3 in extra innings as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Astros send out righty Jason Alexander (3-1, 4.74 ERA) and the Orioles turn to fellow righty Brandon Young (1-6, 5.68 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds.
The public says the Astros are the far better team and should be the clear-cut favorite. However, despite 55% of moneyline bets backing Houston we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Baltimore -110 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Orioles, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
Short home favorites -140 or less off a win with a line move in their favor are 56-35 (62%) with an 11% ROI since July 1st. Short home favorites -140 or less with a below .500 record facing an opponent with an above .500 record are 55-40 (58%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites -150 or less off a win with line movement in their favor are 91-52 (64%) with a 13% ROI.
The Orioles also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Baltimore was off yesterday while the Astros played in Detroit and now must travel to Camden Yards. Rested favorites coming off a day off with 5-cents of line movement or more in their favor, like the Orioles here, are 91-39 (70%) with an 11% ROI.
Young just faced Houston his last time out, going 8 innings and allowing only 1 hit and zero earned runs in a 7-0 win.
Baltimore has also played better than Houston as of late, going 6-4 over their last ten games and hitting .226 with a 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile, the Astros are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting just .193 with a 5.92 ERA.
