Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 5 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals (-150, 8)
The Padres (55-47) just dropped two of three against the Marlins, losing yesterday’s series finale 3-2 as -145 road favorites. Similarly, the Cardinals (52-51) just lost two of three against the Rockies, falling 6-0 yesterday as -190 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Yu Darvish (0-2, 6.08 ERA) and the Cardinals send out fellow righty Sonny Gray (9-4, 4.04 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 home favorite and San Diego a +115 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Cardinals jump up from -135 to -150.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 15-cent move toward the Cardinals we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the home chalk.
At Circa, the Cardinals are only receiving 41% of moneyline bets but a notable 60% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the Vegas wiseguy wagers backing St. Louis.
Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 61-38 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season.
St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cardinals have the better bats, hitting .252 with 100 homers and 461 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .245 with 86 homers and 407 runs scored. St. Louis is hitting .259 against righties (4th best in MLB) while San Diego is hitting .245 (19th).
Gray is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA at home this season.
St. Louis is 29-20 at home. San Diego is 24-29 on the road.
9:38 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-150, 9)
The Mariners (54-48) just lost two of three against the Brewers, dropping yesterday’s series finale 10-2 as -115 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Angels (49-53) just got swept by the Mets, losing 6-3 yesterday as +150 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners start righty Logan Evans (3-3, 3.81 ERA) and the Angels go with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 3.13 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -130 home favorite and Seattle a +110 road dog.
The public thinks the wrong team might be favored and 55% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are grabbing the plus money with the Mariners.
However, despite Seattle receiving a majority of tickets, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Los Angeles -130 to -150. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Angels at home.
At Circa, Los Angeles is only receiving 27% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further validation of the wiseguy desert smart money backing the home team.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the team receiving 10-cents of line movement or more in their favor is 41-23 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Kikuchi is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, Evans has a 5.02 ERA in three July starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched. He is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA on the road this season.
The Angels are 39-31 in night games. The Mariners are 30-33 in night games.
