Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with 10 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-190, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Astros (52-34) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 6-5 as -155 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-3 as -280 road favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Astros hand the ball to lefty Brandon Walter (1-1, 3.34 ERA) and the Rockies (19-67) turn to fellow southpaw Kyle Freeland (1-9, 5.56 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -175 road favorite and Colorado a +155 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Astros to complete the sweep, steaming Houston up from -175 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Astros are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Houston is taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Big favorites -190 or more are 192-70 (73%) with a 4% ROI this season. Road favorites -190 or more with a line move in their favor are 29-10 (74%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites -190 or more who made the playoffs the previous season are 136-42 (76%) with an 8% ROI.
The Astros are 39-24 (62%) with a 5% ROI as a favorite, the 5th best chalk team in MLB. Houston as a favorite of -150 or more is 15-6 (71%) with a 10% ROI.
The Astros have the better bats, hitting .257 with 93 homers and 361 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .229 with 82 homers and 303 runs scored.
Walter has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season. Meanwhile, Freeland is 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA at home. Colorado is 2-13 in his 15 starts overall.
The Astros are hitting .258 against lefties (6th best in MLB). The Rockies are hitting .223 (24th).
The Rockies are 8-34 at home this season, by far the worst home record in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-160, 8)
This is the rubber match of an abbreviated three-game series.
After the opener was rained out, the teams split a doubleheader yesterday. The Brewers (48-38) won the first game 7-2 as +110 road dogs and then the Mets (49-38) took the nightcap 7-3 as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Brewers send out lefty Jose Quintana (6-2, 3.30 ERA) and the Mets counter with fellow southpaw David Peterson (5-4, 3.30 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -150 home favorite and Milwaukee a +130 road dog.
Wiseguys have sided with the Mets to earn a victory and take the series, driving New York up from -150 to -160.
At Circa, the Mets are only receiving 15% of moneyline bets but a whopping 82% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers in Vegas backing the home chalk.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 88-43 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season.
The Mets are 27-10 (73%) with a 15% ROI as a home favorite, the 2nd best home chalk team in MLB.
New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Peterson is 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA at home this season.
7:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves (-155, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Angels (42-43) took the opener 4-0, cashing as +165 road dogs. Then the Braves (39-46) bounced back with an 8-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Angels tap righty Jose Soriano (5-5, 3.99 ERA) and the Braves go with fellow righty Bryce Elder (2-5, 5.82 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -140 home favorite and Los Angeles a +120 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Braves laying modest chalk at home, steaming Atlanta up from -140 to -155.
At Circa, the Braves are receiving only 31% of moneyline bets but a massive 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wiseguy wagers backing Atlanta out in the desert.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 185-88 (68%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the home favorite off a win is 47-23 (67%) with an 8% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 125-65 (66%) with a 4% ROI.
The Braves are hitting .251 against righties this season (12th best in MLB) and .259 at home (9th).
Meanwhile, the Angels are hitting .230 against righties (28th) and .230 on the road (24th).
Atlanta is 24-18 at home. Los Angeles is 22-23 on the road.
