Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Blue Jays (42-37) took the opener 10-6, coming through as -135 road favorites. Then the Guardians (40-38) bounced back with a 5-4 win in extra innings yesterday, taking care of business as -125 home favorites.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Blue Jays tap righty Kevin Gausman (5-6, 4.60 ERA) and the Guardians start fellow righty Tanner Bibee (4-7, 3.86 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -115 to -135.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 170-79 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season are 111-56 (66%) with a 4% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 113-61 (65%) with a 3% ROI.
Cleveland is 12-5 (71%) with a 17% ROI as a home favorite, the 8th best home chalk team this season.
The Guardians have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Bibee has a 2.50 ERA at home compared 4.78 on the road. He is also 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in day games.
On the other hand, Gausman has a 7.65 ERA in four June starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. He is 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA in day games.
Cleveland is 20-16 at home. Toronto in 17-21 on the road.
3:45 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants (-185, 7.5)
The Marlins (33-45) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-2 as +150 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-5 in extra innings as +185 road dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Janson Junk (2-0, 2.60 ERA) and the Giants turn to fellow righty Hayden Birdsong (3-1, 3.25 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -165 home favorite and Miami a +150 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Giants to earn a victory and avoid the sweep, steaming San Francisco up from -165 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Francisco is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Thursday home favorites -175 or more are 17-5 (77%) with an 11% ROI this season. The Giants are 21-14 (60%) with a 9% ROI off a loss this season, the 6th best “bounce back” team in MLB.
Home favorites looking to avoid the sweep in the final game of a three-game series are 211-106 (67%) with a 12% ROI since 2017.
The Giants have correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
San Francisco has the more explosive bats, hitting 78 homers and scoring 339 runs compared to Miami hitting 66 homers and scoring 318 runs.
Birdsong is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA at home this season.
The Giants are 25-16 at home. The Marlins are 16-21 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-115, 8.5)
The Braves (37-42) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning the opener 3-2 as -150 road favorites and then winning again 7-4 as -135 road favorites. Then the Mets (47-34) bounced back with a 7-3 win yesterday, cashing as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Braves send out righty Grant Holmes (4-6, 3.71 ERA) and the Mets go with fellow righty Griffin Canning (7-3, 3.91 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Mets to grab a win and earn a series split, pushing New York up from -110 to -115.
At Circa, the Mets are receiving 45% of moneyline bets but a hefty 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the Mets at home.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 170-79 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 83-40 (68%) with a 14% ROI.
The Mets are 26-9 (74%) with a 16% ROI as a home favorite this season, the second best home favorite record in MLB.
New York has the better bats, hitting 107 homers and scoring 360 runs compared to Atlanta hitting 82 homers and scoring 332 runs.
The Mets are 11-4 in Canning’s 15 starts this season. Meanwhile, Holmes has a 4.58 ERA on the road compared to 3.08 at home.
