Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Top MLB Resources:
6:45 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-130, 8)
The Orioles (16-32) just dropped two of three against the Brewers but avoided the sweep with an 8-4 win yesterday, cashing as -105 road dogs. Conversely, the Red Sox (25-26) just took two of three against the Mets but failed to secure the sweep, losing 5-1 yesterday as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles send out lefty Cade Povich (1-3, 5.23 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to righty Lucas Giolito (1-1, 7.08 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -120 home favorite and Baltimore a +105 road dog.
Wiseguys have laid the chalk with the Red Sox at home, steaming Boston up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Red Sox to earn a series opening win at Fenway.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 55-29 (66%) with a 6% ROI this season. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 94-50 (65%) with a 5% ROI. Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 33-14 (70%) with a 21% ROI.
Boston has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting .252 with 62 homers and 240 runs scored compared to the Orioles only hitting .232 with 56 homers and 183 runs scored.
The Red Sox are hitting .255 at home (13th) while the Orioles are hitting .223 (26th) on the road. Boston is also hitting .273 against lefties, second best in MLB.
Baltimore is 8-17 on the road. Boston is 14-12 at home.
6:45 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-160, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
This is the final game of three-game series. The Nationals (22-27) took the opener 5-3, cashing as +145 home dogs. Then yesterday’s rematch got postponed due to rain.
In tonight’s series finale, the Braves (24-24) hand the ball to righty AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 2.33 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow righty Trevor Williams (2-5, 5.91 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -150 road favorite and Washington a +130 home dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Braves to a earn a series split, driving Atlanta up from -150 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further indication of the bigger, sharper wagers laying the road chalk in a bounce back spot.
Rested favorites coming off a day off, like the Braves here, are 73-40 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 49-25 (66%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 95-54 (64%) with a 5% ROI.
Smith-Shawver has a 0.46 ERA in three May starts, giving up just one earned run in 19.2 innings pitched. The Braves are 5-0 in his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Williams has a 6.32 ERA in three May starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched.
8:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-135, 8.5) at Houston Astros
The Mariners (28-20) just took two of three against the White Sox, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-5 as -145 road favorites. On the other hand, the Astros (25-24) just dropped two of three against the Rays, falling 8-4 yesterday as -165 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners start righty George Kirby, who is making his 2025 debut after going 14-11 with a 3.53 ERA in 2024. Meanwhile, the Astros go with fellow righty Lance McCullers (0-1, 7.88 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -125 road favorite and Houston a +115 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mariners laying short chalk, steaming Seattle up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are receiving 62% of moneyline bets and 63% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest Pro and Joe support. However, at Circa the Mariners are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing Seattle out in Vegas.
Sweet spot favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Mariners here, are 40-25 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The Mariners have the more explosive bats, hitting 66 homers and scoring 227 runs compared to the Astros only hitting 45 homers and scoring 195 runs.
Seattle is 8-3 (73%) with a 28% ROI as a road favorite this season.
Last season, Kirby faced the Astros four times and allowed one earned run or less in all four starts.
