Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 5 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Top MLB Resources:
7:07 p.m. ET: Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (-165, 8.5)
The Athletics (23-33) have lost 13 of their last 14 games and just dropped a two-game series against the Astros, losing 5-3 yesterday as +120 road dogs. On the flip side, the Blue Jays (27-28) just took two of three against the Rangers, winning 2-0 yesterday as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Athletics start lefty Jacob Lopez (0-2, 2.57 ERA) and the Blue Jays turn to righty Jose Berrios (1-2, 4.22 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -140 home favorite and the Athletics a +120 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays to take the series opener, steaming Toronto up from -140 to -165.
At Circa, the Blue Jays are taking in 67% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home chalk out in Vegas.
Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 107-56 (66%) with a 6% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite in 61-34 (64%) with a 5% ROI.
Thursday home favorites -150 or more are 20-8 (71%) with a 9% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 90-47 (66%) with a 4% ROI.
Lopez has a 1.04 ERA at home but a 5.06 ERA on the road.
Toronto has pitched far better as of late, sporting a team ERA of 2.45 over their last ten games compared to 6.47 for the Athletics.
The Blue Jays have the superior bullpen as well, boasting a team ERA of 3.57 compared to 6.03 for the Athletics, third worst in MLB.
Toronto is 19-14 in night games. The Athletics are 15-20.
8:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (-115, 8)
The Rays (28-27) have won seven of their last eight and just took two of three against the Twins, winning 5-0 yesterday as -130 home favorites. Similarly, the Astros (30-25) have won five of their last six and just swept the Athletics in a two-game series, winning 5-3 yesterday as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays send out righty Shane Baz (4-3, 4.94 ERA) and the Astros turn to fellow righty Ryan Gusto (3-2, 4.58 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +105 road dog.
The public is all over the Astros laying short chalk at home. However, despite receiving 66% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve actually seen Houston fall from -120 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rays as the line has moved in their favor (+105 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
Dogs have been highly profitable in the month of May, posting a 171-204 (46%) record but producing +17 units with a 5% ROI based on the plus money payouts. Short May dogs +100 to +120 are 49-48 (51%) with a 7% ROI.
Gusto has gotten roughed up in the month of May, posting a 9.72 ERA in four appearances. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 8.1 innings pitched. He has a 5.46 ERA at home compared to 0.00 on the road.
The Rays have pitched better recently, sporting a team ERA of 2.22 over their last ten games compared to 3.27 for the Astros.
Tampa Bay is 12-12 (50%) as a dog this season (15% ROI), the 5th best dog team in MLB. The Rays are 8-5 (62%) with a 45% ROI as a road dog, the second best road dog team in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners (-120, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Mariners (30-24) won the opener 9-1, cruising as -170 home favorites. Then the Nationals (25-30) bounced back with a 9-0 win yesterday, cashing as +185 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Nationals start lefty MacKenzie Gore (2-5, 3.47 ERA) and the Mariners tap righty Emerson Hancock (2-2, 5.95 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Wiseguys have jumped on the Mariners at a coin-flip price in a bounce back spot, steaming Seattle up from -110 to -120.
At Circa, the Mariners are only receiving 28% of moneyline bets but a whopping 86% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mariners have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.48 compared to 6.11 for the Nationals (2nd worst in MLB).
Gore has a 4.26 ERA on the road compared to 2.64 at home. Seattle is 6-1 in Hancock’s last seven starts.
Seattle is 14-9 (61%) with a 16% ROI following a loss this season, the 5th best “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Mariners are 14-12 at home. The Nationals are 12-16 on the road.
