Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-150, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Rangers (18-19) won the opener 6-1, cashing as -120 road favorites. Then the Red Sox (19-19) bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, taking care of business as -145 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rangers hand the ball to righty Jack Leiter (2-1, 4.58 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Brayan Bello (2-0, 2.55 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -135 home favorite and Texas a +115 road dog.
Wiseguys have pounced on the Red Sox laying modest chalk at Fenway, steaming Boston up from -135 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Boston to earn a victory and take the series.
Home favorites are 229-127 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites -150 or more are 112-48 (70%) with a 4% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 63-29 (69%) with a 10% ROI.
The Red Sox have a big edge at the plate, hitting .255 with 45 homers and 186 runs scored compared to the Rangers only hitting .234 with 33 homers and 123 runs scored.
Boston is hitting .265 at home this season (6th) while Texas is only hitting .229 on the road (18th). The Red Sox are also hitting .254 against righties (6th) while the Rangers are only hitting .236 (26th).
Bello has only given up 5 earned runs in 17.2 inning pitched across three starts this season. Meanwhile, Leiter just got lit up for 6 earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched in a 13-1 loss to the Mariners his last time out.
7:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-145, 8.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Phillies (21-15) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 8-4 as -130 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-0 as -165 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Phillies tap lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-0, 1.94 ERA) and the Rays (16-20) go with righty Ryan Pepiot (2-4, 4.23 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 road favorite and Tampa Bay a +110 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Phillies to complete the sweep, steaming Philadelphia up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, the Phillies are taking in 64% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Phillies to keep rolling.
Interleague favorites are 95-58 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 179-100 (64%) with a 4% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 128-61 (68%) with a 9% ROI.
Philadelphia has the better offense, hitting .259 with 38 homers and 174 runs scored compared to Tampa Bay only hitting .239 with 29 homers and 135 runs scored.
The Phillies are hitting .257 against righties this season, 5th best in MLB. The Rays are only hitting .182 against lefties, 2nd worst.
The Rays are only 9-15 at home, tied for the 5th worst home team in baseball.
Luzardo has a 1.59 ERA on the road in 3 starts this season. Pepiot has a 4.82 ERA in five home starts.
7:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-200, 8)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Braves (17-19) took the first two games, winning 4-0 as -135 home favorites and 2-1 as -220 home favorites. Then the Reds (19-19) bounced back with a 4-3 win yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Reds start lefty Nick Lodolo (3-3, 3.27 ERA) and the Braves turn to fellow right Spencer Schwellenbach (1-3, 3.92).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -165 home favorite and Cincinnati a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -165 to -200.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 69% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Braves are taking in 57% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing the Braves out in Vegas.
Home favorites off a loss are 86-49 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 128-61 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Big favorites -200 or more are 66-18 (79%) with an 11% ROI. A below .500 favorite playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season is 86-47 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
The Braves have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Atlanta is hitting .262 at home this season, 7th best in MLB. The Braves are 11-6 at home overall.
