Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
The Phillies (15-8) cruised to a 7-0 win in Monday night’s series opener, cashing as -110 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies start lefty Cristopher Sanchez (1-2, 2.53 ERA) and the Reds (12-10) go with fellow lefty Andrew Abbott (1-2, 2.70 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and Cincinnati a +105 home dog. Pros are going back to the well with the Phillies at a cheap chalk price, steaming Philadelphia up from -115 to -125. Some shops are inching closer to -130. The Phillies are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling both public and sharp support. Philadelphia has won seven straight games and has the better offense (hitting .247 vs .219) and the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.25 vs 4.02). The Phillies are hitting .278 against lefties this season (3rd best in MLB), while the Reds are hitting just .218 against southpaws. Road favorites are 72-36 (67%) this season with an 18% ROI. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 86-63 (58%) with a 7% ROI. Non-division road favorites off a win are 540-361 (60%) since 2021.
7:45 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 8.5)
The Cardinals (10-13) took last night’s series opener 5-3, taking care of business as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Diamondbacks (11-13) hand the ball to lefty Tommy Henry (0-1, 6.87 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow southpaw Steven Matz (1-1, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -115 home favorite and Arizona +105 road dog. The public sees two evenly matched teams as says “take the plus money with the Snakes.” However, despite 57% of bets backing Arizona, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward St. Louis (-115 to -135). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cardinals, with pros fading the trendy dog Diamondbacks and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. St. Louis has the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.81 vs 4.02) and specifically the better bullpen (ERA 3.33 vs 4.18). Matz has a 0.00 ERA at home this season compared to 4.80 on the road. The Cardinals have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The over is receiving 55% of bets but a whopping 95% of money, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
9:38 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-155, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Orioles (15-7) won last night’s series opener 4-2, cashing as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles start righty Grayson Rodriguez (3-0, 2.63 ERA) and the Angels (9-14) counter with fellow righty Griffin Canning (0-3, 8.05 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -145 road favorite and Los Angeles a +130 home dog. Sharps are riding the red-hot Orioles, who are now 7-1 over their last eight games, steaming Baltimore up from -145 to -155. The Orioles are receiving 93% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, indicating lopsided one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Orioles have the better offense (hitting .261 with 35 homers and 126 runs scored vs the Angels hitting .237 with 23 homers and 94 runs scored) as well as the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.84 vs 4.40). Road favorites are 72-36 (67%) with an 18% ROI this season. Baltimore is 9-5 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season as a favorite against teams who missed the postseason the previous year and 55-20 (73%) with a 19% ROI since the start of 2023. Baltimore is 7-3 on the road. Los Angeles is 2-5 at home. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115 or -120 depending on the book. The over is receiving only 44% of bets but 76% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Angel Stadium. The Orioles are 13-7-2 to the over, the 3rd best “over” team in MLB behind the Guardians and Dodgers.
