Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 16-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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8:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros (-170, 9)
The Guardians (19-9) just dropped two of three against the Braves, losing Sunday’s series finale 4-3 in extra innings as +135 road dogs. On the flip side, the Astros (9-19) just swept a two-game series against the Rockies, winning the series finale 8-2 as -250 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Cleveland starts righty Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 4.63 ERA) and Houston sends out fellow righty Hunter Brown (0-4, 9.68 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -140 home favorite and the Guardians a +120 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the plus money with Cleveland, who has the far better won-loss record. However, despite 67% of moneyline bets backing the Guardians, we’ve seen this line skyrocket toward the Astros -140 to -170. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Houston, with pros laying the chalk with the unpopular home favorite. The Astros have the better bats (hitting .264 vs .250). When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 460-280 (62%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Houston also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win.
9:38 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-140, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels (11-18) won Monday night’s Interleague series opener 6-5, coming from behind to cash as +130 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (19-11) turn to righty Spencer Turnbull (2-0, 1.33 ERA) and the Angels go with lefty Tyler Anderson (2-3, 1.78 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 road favorite and Los Angeles a +120 home dog. Pros like the Phillies to bounce back with a win tonight, steaming Philadelphia up from -130 to -140. The Phillies are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public. Philadelphia has the better bats (hitting .254 vs .241) and the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.46 vs 5.01). The Phillies are hitting .271 vs lefties this season, 5th best in MLB. Favorites off a loss, like the Phillies here, are 112-74 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Road favorites are 93-58 (61%) with a 9% ROI. Philadelphia also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Phillies are 9-5 on the road. The Angels are 4-9 at home. Philadelphia is +24 in run differential. Los Angeles is -35. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible dip down to 8.5. The under is receiving 55% of bets and 78% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Doug Eddings, the home plate ump, is 55% to the under historically.
9:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (-155, 7.5)
The Reds (16-13) took last night’s series opener 5-2, cashing as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Reds hand the ball to righty Nick Martinez (0-1, 5.48 ERA) and the Padres (14-18) counter with fellow righty Yu Darvish (0-1, 4.18 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -140 home favorite and Cincinnati a +125 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -140 to -155. The Padres are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. San Diego has the better offense, hitting .250 vs .220 for Cincinnati. Favorites off a loss, like the Padres here, are 112-74 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Cory Blaser, the home plate ump, is 55% to the home team historically. San Diego also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Pros also seem to be leaning over, as the total is 7.5 with the over juiced up to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 8. The over is receiving 68% of bets and 94% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy.
