Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:35 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-170, 9) at Baltimore Orioles
The Mariners (66-53) have won seven straight and just swept the Rays, winning the series finale 6-3 as -180 home favorites. On the other hand, the Orioles (53-65) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, losing the series finale 3-2 as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners hand the ball to righty George Kirby (7-5, 4.04 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Dean Kremer (8-8, 4.35 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -145 road favorite and Baltimore a +125 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Mariners laying modest road chalk, steaming Seattle up from -145 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support.
Favorites coming off a day off receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction, like the Mariners here, are 87-39 (69%) with a 9% ROI this season. If they’re also coming off a win, they improve to 53-21 (72%) with a 13% ROI.
Seattle has further betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mariners have the more explosive bats, hitting 171 homers and scoring 547 runs compared to the Orioles hitting 144 homers and scoring 505 runs.
Seattle is 9-2 in Kirby’s last 11 starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 12 starts. Meanwhile, Kremer has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 3 straight starts.
The Mariners are 9-1 over their last ten games, hitting .231 with a 2.97 team ERA. Conversely, the Orioles are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .186 with a 4.81 team ERA.
7:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 6.5)
The Brewers (74-44) dominated last night’s series opener 7-1, taking care of business as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Pirates (51-69) send out righty Paul Skenes (7-8, 1.94 ERA) and the Brewers turn to fellow righty Freddy Peralta (13-5, 3.03 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -115 home favorite and Pittsburgh a -105 road dog.
Sharps are riding the red-hot Brewers, who have won ten straight, steaming Milwaukee up from -115 to -125. Some shops are even up to -130.
At DraftKings, Milwaukee is taking in 68% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating modest public support but also respected wiseguy action.
Short home favorites -140 or less off a win receiving line movement in their direction are 51-32 (61%) with an 11% ROI since July 1st.
The Brewers are 42-19 (69%) with a 15% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, Milwaukee is 30-12 (71%) with a 17% ROI.
The Brewers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (6.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee has a big edge at the plate, hitting .257 with 122 homers and 594 runs scored compared to the Pirates hitting .232 with 84 homers and 427 runs scored.
Peralta is 7-1 with 2.13 ERA at home.
The Brewers are 40-20 at home. The Pirates are 17-40 on the road.
9:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-120, 7.5)
The Padres (67-52) stole last night’s series opener 4-1, coming through as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Padres start lefty Nestor Cortes (1-1, 7.11 ERA) and the Giants go with fellow southpaw Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.85 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 home favorite and San Diego a +115 road dog.
The public is leaning slightly toward the Giants in a bounce-back spot. However, despite receiving 54% of moneyline bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen San Francisco fall from -135 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Padres, as the line has moved in favor of San Diego (+115 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Padres are receiving 40% of moneyline bets and 58% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further indication of the respected wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the road dog.
San Diego has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field, leading to more upsets and benefiting the team getting plus money.
The Padres are 28-26 (52%) with a 16% ROI as a dog, the 6th most profitable dog in MLB. The Padres are also 41-27 (60%) with a 7% ROI against teams with a .500 record or below.
San Diego is hitting .247 against lefties (11th best in MLB). Conversely, the Giants are hitting just .211 against southpaws (30th).
The Giants are 7-15 since the All-Star Break and 18-29 since acquiring Rafael Devers.
The Padres are 5-2 against the Giants this season.
