Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals (-160, 8)
The Rockies (46-79) just took two of three against the Padres, winning Sunday’s series finale 3-2 as +165 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Nationals (56-69) just dropped three of four against the Phillies but avoided the sweep with a 6-4 win in Sunday’s series finale, cashing as +135 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Rockies send out lefty Austin Gomber (3-8, 4.82 ERA) and the Nationals tap fellow southpaw DJ Herz (2-5, 4.25 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a -140 home favorite and Colorado a +125 road dog. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with the Nationals, steaming Washington up from -140 to -160. The Nats are receiving 76% of moneyline bets but 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their direction. Washington has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Nats also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored also more likely to come from the better team. Colorado is 17-46 on the road, the second worst road record in MLB. Gomber has a 5.06 ERA in three August starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 16 innings pitched. He has a 5.16 ERA on the road compared to 4.42 at home. Herz has a 2.63 ERA in three August starts, allowing 4 earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched.
7:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-145, 8) at Atlanta Braves
The Phillies (73-51) just took three of four against the Nationals but failed to earn the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 6-4 as -155 home favorites. Similarly, the Braves (66-58) just took two of three against the Angels, winning Sunday’s series finale 3-1 as -185 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies hand the ball to righty Zack Wheeler (12-5, 2.72 ERA) and the Braves counter with fellow righty Reynaldo Lopez (7-4, 2.06 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -125 road favorite and Atlanta a +110 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying short road chalk, steaming Philadelphia up from -125 to -145. The Phillies are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 147-100 (60%) with a 4% ROI this season. Road favorites with 10-cents of steam or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the road favorite is 207-132 (61%) with a 4% ROI since 2020. The Phillies have the better bats, hitting .258 with 606 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .241 with 537 runs scored. Philadelphia also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Wheeler has a 1.35 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 20 innings pitched.
9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 7.5) at Oakland Athletics
The Athletics (54-71) took last night’s series opener 3-0, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Rays (62-62) start righty Shane Baz (0-2, 4.21 ERA) and the Athletics send out fellow righty Joey Estes (5-5, 4.72 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 road favorite and Oakland a +105 home dog. Sharps like the Rays to bounce back with a win at a cheap chalk price, driving Tampa Bay up from -115 to -120. The Rays are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars, signaling slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split as well as a 5-cent line adjustment in their favor. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 147-100 (60%) with a 4% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 184-154 (54%) with a 1.5% ROI. Tampa Bay has betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite and a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack off familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored both more likely to benefit the team who is expected to win.
