Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-145, 8.5)
The Tigers (66-48) won last night’s series opener 6-3, taking care of business as -185 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Twins (52-60) send out righty Zebby Matthews (2-3, 5.67 ERA) and the Tigers go with fellow righty Chris Paddack (4-9, 4.77 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -135 home favorite and Minnesota a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Tigers laying modest chalk, driving Detroit up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 86% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Favorites off a win with a winning record receiving at least 5-cents of line movement against a team who missed the playoffs the previous season are 133-61 (69%) with a 6% ROI this season. Home favorites in the second game of a new series after winning the opener are 129-74 (64%) with a 3% ROI.
Detroit is 32-17 (65%) with a 5% ROI as a home favorite, including 25-7 (78%) with a 22% ROI as a home favorite receiving at least 10-cents of line movement in their direction. The Tigers are also 18-5 (78%) with a 20% ROI as a home favorite against sub .500 teams.
Detroit has the more explosive bats, hitting .250 with 147 homers and 549 runs scored compared to Minnesota hitting .240 with 129 homers and 465 runs scored.
Paddack is making his 2nd start since being acquired by the Tigers. He went 6 innings allowing only 1 earned run in a 7-2 win over the Diamondbacks in his debut.
On the other hand, Matthews posted a 6.28 ERA in three July starts. He has a 6.63 ERA on the road compared to 4.40 at home.
The Tigers are 37-21 at home. The Twins are 22-36 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-185, 7.5)
The Reds (59-54) stole last night’s series opener 3-2, coming through as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds tap newly acquired righty Zack Littell (8-8, 3.58 ERA) and the Cubs (65-47) go with lefty Shota Imanaga (8-4, 3.25 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -170 home favorite and Cincinnati a +150 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cubs to bounce back with a win, steaming Chicago up from -170 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public.
Chicago is 52-26 (67%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite this season, the 2nd best chalk team in MLB. When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, the Cubs are 45-16 (74%) with an 18% ROI, the best in MLB.
Chicago is also 31-12 (72%) with a 25% ROI off a loss, the best “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the more productive bats, hitting .254 with 160 homers and 581 runs scored compared to the Reds hitting .247 with 116 homers and 515 runs scored.
Chicago is 10-5 in Imanaga’s 15 starts this season.
The Cubs are hitting .255 against righties (6th best in MLB). Meanwhile, the Reds are only hitting .221 against lefties (28th).
Chicago is 35-21 at home. Cincinnati is 26-28 on the road.
8:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-235, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Blue Jays (66-48) dominated last night’s Interleague series opener 15-1, easily cashing as -225 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Jose Berrios (7-4, 3.84 ERA) and the Rockies (30-82) turn to righty Anthony Molina (0-0, 7.27 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -200 road favorite and Colorado a +170 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays, steaming Toronto up from -200 to -235.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are taking in 93% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor. At Circa, Toronto is receiving 60% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas laying the big chalk.
Big road favorites -200 or more are 37-14 (73%) with a 3% ROI this season. If they are receiving 20-cents of steam or more in their favor they improve to 19-4 (83%) with a 17% ROI.
Toronto is 24-12 (67%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite against teams who missed the postseason the previous year.
The Blue Jays have the better offense, hitting .267 with 546 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .237 with only 419 runs scored.
Berrios has been better on the road (3.36 ERA) and at night (2.68 ERA) than at home (4.34 ERA) or during the day (5.89 ERA). Toronto is 10-2 in his last 12 starts.
Meanwhile, Molina is making his 6th appearance and first since June 25th. He has given up 7 earned runs in 8.2 innings pitched this season.
The Blue Jays are hitting .268 against righties (1st in MLB). The Rockies are hitting .240 (25th).
Colorado is 16-40 at home this season, by far the worst home team in MLB.
