Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-170, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Padres (61-52) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning Sunday’s series finale 10-2 as -220 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Pirates (56-55) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks, losing Sunday’s series finale 6-5 as -165 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Dylan Cease (11-8, 3.42 ERA) and the Pirates counter with lefty Bailey Falter (5-7, 3.95 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -155 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +140 home dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the moderately expensive chalk and have steamed the Padres up from -155 to -170. San Diego is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI this season. Non-division road favorites off a win are 123-93 (57%) with a 2% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the road favorite is 205-129 (61%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. The Padres have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. San Diego has the better bats, hitting .264 with 526 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .233 with only 468 runs scored. The Padres are 31-23 on the road. The Pirates are 27-28 at home. The Padres have won four straight starts made by Cease. He posted a 2.35 ERA in six July starts overall. Falter posted a 4.91 ERA in two July starts. Pittsburgh is just 3-8 in Falter’s last 11 starts.
8:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (-125, 8.5)
The Red Sox (60-51) stole last night’s series opener 9-5, cashing as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox turn to righty Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.13 ERA) and the Royals (63-51) go with fellow righty Seth Lugo (13-5, 2.57 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -135 home favorite and Boston a +120 road dog. The public likes the Royals to bounce back at home with their ace on the mound. However, despite receiving 60% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -135 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Boston, as the line is moving in their direction (+120 to +110) despite receiving only 40% of bets. The Red Sox have the better offense, hitting .264 with 141 homers and 553 runs scored compared to Kansas City hitting .253 with 122 homers and 541 runs scored. The Red Sox are 3-1 against the Royals this season. Boston is 5-1 in Bello’s last six starts. He has given up three earned runs or less in four straight starts. The Red Sox are hitting .328 over their last ten games while the Royals are hitting .273. Boston has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Red Sox are 28-26 (52%) with a 14% ROI as a dog this season, the 5th best dog team in MLB. Boston is 18-13 (58%) with a 26% ROI as a dog against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season.
9:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics (-200, 8.5)
The Athletics (47-67) cruised to a 5-1 win in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as -195 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the White Sox (27-88) send out righty Jonathan Cannon (1-5, 4.11 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with righty Ross Stripling (2-10, 5.64 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -165 home favorite and Chicago a +140 road dog. Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have elected to fade the reeling White Sox, who have now lost 21 straight games. This overload of Oakland smart money has steamed the Athletics up from -165 to -200. Oakland is receiving roughly 85% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy public and sharp support in addition to a bit 35-cent steam move in their favor. Non-division home favorites -200 or more are 73-28 (72%) with a 3% ROI this season. Oakland is 10-3 (77%) with a 36% ROI as a favorite this season, the 4th most profitable chalk team in MLB. The Athletics have the better bats, hitting .230 with 147 homers and 467 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .216 with only 96 homers and 353 runs scored. Chicago is 10-48 on the road, by far the worst road team in MLB. The White Sox are 0-5 in Gannon’s last five starts. He has a 5.76 ERA on the road compared to 2.90 at home. Oakland is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .220 with a 3.89 ERA. Chicago is 0-10 over their last ten games, hitting just .208 with a 7.74 ERA. The A’s have the far better bullpen as well, sporting an ERA on 3.65 (7th) compared to 5.03 for the White Sox (29th).
