Today we kick off the month of July with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves (-195, 9.5)
The Angels (41-42) just dropped two of three against the Nationals, losing Sunday’s series finale 7-4 in extra innings as -130 home favorites. Similarly, the Braves (38-45) just lost two of three against the Phillies, losing the series finale 2-1 as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Angels hand the ball to Tyler Anderson (2-5, 4.41 ERA) and the Braves turn to righty Grant Holmes (4-7, 3.70 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -160 home favorite and Los Angeles a +135 road dog.
Originally, it was expected that the Braves would start righty Didier Fuentes (0-2, 10.80 ERA). But Atlanta swapped out Fuentes for Holmes early this morning. Once the pitching change was made, smart money got down hard on Atlanta, steaming the Braves up from -160 to -195.
At Circa, the Braves are only taking in 13% of moneyline bets but a robust 82% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of heavy sharp action in Vegas backing the home chalk.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the team receiving 10-cents of line movement or more in their favor has gone 32-19 (63%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 182-87 (68%) with a 7% ROI. When both tams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 84-46 (65%) with a 5% ROI.
Atlanta has betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Braves are hitting .258 at home (10th best in MLB). The Angels are hitting .230 on the road (25th).
Anderson struggled in the month of June, posting a 6.93 ERA in five starts. He has a 6.26 ERA on the road compared to 2.66 at home. Meanwhile, Holmes posted a 3.51 ERA in five June starts. He has a 3.08 ERA at home compared to 4.46 on the road.
Atlanta is 23-17 at home. Los Angeles is 21-22 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs (-185, 8)
The Guardians (40-42) just got swept by the Cardinals, losing the series finale 7-0 as a -105 home dog. Meanwhile, the Cubs (49-35) just lost two of three against the Astros, dropping the series finale 2-0 as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Guardians send out righty Gavin Williams (5-3, 3.68 ERA) and the Cubs counter with lefty Matthew Boyd (7-3, 2.65 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -165 home favorite and Cleveland a +140 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Cubs at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -165 to -185.
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and a whopping 87% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of Chicago out in the desert.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the team receiving 10-cents of line movement or more in their favor has gone 32-19 (63%) with a 9% ROI this season. When both tams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 84-46 (65%) with a 5% ROI.
The Cubs are 39-18 (68%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. Chicago is 24-8 (75%) with a 33% ROI off a loss, tied with the Astros for the best “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .256 with 124 homers and 453 runs scored compared to Cleveland hitting .226 with 81 homers and 303 runs scored.
Boyd posted a 1.78 ERA in five June starts. He is 6-0 with a 2.41 ERA at home this season. Cleveland is only hitting .220 against lefties, ranking 28th in MLB.
The Cubs are 25-15 at home. The Guardians are 20-22 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (-140, 8)
The Mariners (44-40) took last night’s series opener 6-2, cruising as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Royals (39-46) send out righty Michael Lorenzen (4-8, 4.91 ERA) and the Mariners tap fellow righty Emerson Hancock (3-4, 5.30 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -130 home favorite and Kansas City a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mariners laying modest chalk at home, steaming Seattle up from -130 to -140.
At Circa, the Mariners are receiving 44% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy desert money backing the home team.
Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 50-27 (65%) with a 12% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites who won the opening game of the series have gone 64-37 (63%) with a 2% ROI.
The Mariners have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Seattle has the more explosive offense, hitting 110 homers and scoring 386 runs compared to Kansas City hitting only 58 homers and scoring 279 runs.
Lorenzen posted a 6.31 ERA in five June starts. He is 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA on the road this season.
The Mariners are 21-19 at home. The Royals are 19-22 on the road.
