Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins (-125, 8)
The Padres (55-45) took last night’s series opener 2-1, cashing as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Padres hand the ball to righty Stephen Kolek (3-4, 4.24 ERA) and the Marlins (46-53) counter with fellow righty Edward Cabrera (3-4, 3.61 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -115 home favorite and San Diego a -105 road dog.
The public is once again riding the Padres as a plus-money dog. However, despite 62% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing San Diego we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Miami -115 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Marlins, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 38% of moneyline bets and 52% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Miami is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the fishy home favorite.
Short home favorites -120 to -150 off a loss playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 40-22 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season.
The Marlins are 24-24 (50%) with a 19% ROI off a loss, the third most profitable “bounce back” team in MLB.
Miami has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is favored to win.
The Marlins have the more productive bats, hitting .253 with 92 homers and 424 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .246 with 86 homers and 402 runs scored.
Cabrera has 3.00 ERA in three July starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. He has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his last 12 starts.
Meanwhile, the Padres are 0-6 in Kolek’s last six starts.
6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians (-160, 8)
The Guardians (49-50) cruised to a 10-5 victory in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (44-55) send out righty Brandon Young (0-4, 7.52 ERA) and the Guardians go with lefty Joey Cantillo (1-0, 4.17 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 home favorite and Baltimore a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying modest chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -135 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 90% of moneyline bets and a hefty 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy, one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe support in favor of the Guardians to post another home win.
Home favorites who won the series opener are 115-64 (64%) with a 4% ROI in the second game of the series this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 148-77 (66%) with a 4% ROI.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 203-106 (66%) with a 4% ROI. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 92-56 (62%) with a 5% ROI.
Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is favored to win.
The Guardians are 8-2 in their last ten games with a 3.77 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 4-6 over their last ten games with a 5.63 team ERA.
Young has a 7.90 ERA in three July starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched. Baltimore is 0-5 in his last five starts.
9:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners (-125, 7)
The Brewers (60-40) took last night’s Interleague series opener 6-0, cashing as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers tap righty Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 2.81 ERA) and the Mariners (53-47) turn to fellow righty Logan Gilbert (2-3, 3.39 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -120 home favorite and Milwaukee a +100 road dog.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 65% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are grabbing the Brewers. However, despite Milwaukee receiving a majority of tickets we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Mariners -120 to -125, indicating sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the home team.
At Circa, the Mariners are only taking in 13% of moneyline bets but 48% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the more respected wiseguy wagers out in the desert banking on Seattle to bounce back with a win.
Short home favorites -120 to -150 off a loss playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 40-22 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a super low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is favored to win.
Misiorowski has a 5.59 ERA in two July starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 9.2 innings pitched. He has a 6.52 ERA on the road compared to 0.56 at home.
Meanwhile, Gilbert has a 2.93 ERA in three July starts, giving up 5 earned runs in 15.1 inning pitched. Seattle is 4-1 in his last five starts. He has a 2.29 ERA at home compared to 4.91 on the road.
