Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies (-110, 9.5)
The Yankees (63-45) took last night’s Interleague Series opener 14-4, cruising as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Gerrit Cole (3-2, 5.40 ERA) and the Phillies (65-41) counter with fellow righty Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.44 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -125 home favorite and New York a +115 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Yankees getting plus money, dropping this line away from the Phillies (-125 to -110) and toward the Bronx Bombers (+115 to -105). Essentially, we are seeing smart Yankees money drive this line toward a pick’em. New York is receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 66% of moneyline dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split combined with a price adjustment in their favor. The Yankees have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Yankees are 4-1 in Cole’s last five starts. The Yankees will lean on their red-hot offense, hitting .291 over their last ten games while the Phillies are hitting just .229 over their last ten games. New York also has the better bullpen, sporting an ERA of 3.63 compared to 4.07 for Philadelphia. The Yankees are 16-7 (70%) with a 48% ROI as a dog this season, the best dog team in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-115, 10.5) at Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox (56-49) won last night’s series opener 14-7, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners (56-52) turn to righty Luis Castillo (8-10, 3.38 ERA) and the Red Sox send out lefty James Paxton (8-2, 4.43 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -130 road favorite and Boston a +115 home dog. Sharps have jumped on the Red Sox getting plus money at home, dropping this line away from Seattle (-130 to -115) and toward Boston (+115 to +100). The Red Sox are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, signaling a combination of both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Boston has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (10.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Red Sox have a big edge at the plate, hitting .259 with 513 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting just .218 with 419 runs scored. Castillo has a 4.11 ERA on the road compared to 2.82 at home. Paxton, who was recently acquired from the Dodgers, is well-rested and hasn’t made a start since July 21st. The Mariners are hitting .215 against lefties this season, dead last in MLB. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are hitting .264 against righties, ranking 2nd overall. Boston is 9-8 (53%) with a 13% ROI as a home dog this season.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 7.5) at San Diego Padres
This is the first game of a brief two-game series. The Dodgers (63-44) just dropped two of three against the Astros but avoided the sweep by winning the series finale 6-2 as +120 road dogs. On the flip side, the Padres (57-51) just took two of three against the Orioles but failed to complete the sweep by losing the series finale 8-6 as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers start righty Tyler Glasnow (8-6, 3.47 ERA) and the Padres tap fellow righty Matt Waldron (6-9, 3.64 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -145 road favorite and San Diego a +130 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Dodgers. However, despite receiving 69% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Los Angeles fall from -145 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Padres, as the line is moving in their favor (+130 to +115) despite being the unpopular side. San Diego is receiving 31% of moneyline bets but 49% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Padres have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities. The Padres are hitting .285 with a 3.27 ERA over their last ten games. The Dodgers are hitting .247 with a 4.10 ERA over their last ten games. San Diego is 24-21 (53%) with a 20% ROI as a dog this season, the 3rd best dog team in MLB.
