Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-145, 8)
The Pirates (27-40) dominated last night’s series opener 10-3, cruising as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Marlins (24-40) hand the ball to righty Sandy Alcantara (2-7, 7.89 ERA) and the Pirates counter with fellow righty Mitch Keller (1-8, 4.13 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -135 home favorite and Miami a +115 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Pirates laying modest chalk at home, steaming Pittsburgh up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Pirates are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Pittsburgh is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of another Bucs victory.
Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of line movement or more in their direction are 97-52 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Pittsburgh has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Keller has given up 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his 13 starts this season. Meanwhile, Alcantara has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 8 of his 12 starts this season. He is 0-4 on the road with a 12.81 ERA.
Pittsburgh has played far better as of late, going 6-4 with a .251 batting average and 2.86 team ERA in their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .228 with a 4.19 team ERA.
Miami is 10-20 on the road, the 5th worst road record in MLB.
Pittsburgh is 18-18 at home.
7:45 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8.5)
The Blue Jays (36-30) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-4 in extra innings, cashing as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays send out righty Chris Bassitt (6-3, 3.56 ERA) and the Cardinals (36-30) turn to fellow righty Miles Mikolas (4-2, 3.96 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -120 road favorite and St. Louis a +105 home dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite an even moneyline bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen this line completely flip toward the Cardinals +105 to -115. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of St. Louis.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are only taking in 50% of moneyline bets but 69% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is receiving 38% of moneyline bets but a whopping 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the Cardinals in a bounce back spot.
Home favorites receiving line movement in their favor in the second game of a series after losing the first game are 33-20 (62%) with a 3% ROI this season. The Cardinals are 13-5 (72%) with a 37% ROI when they are at home receiving at least 5-cents or line movement in their direction. St. Louis is 10-5 (67%) with a 26% ROI at home following a loss.
Bassitt is 1-3 with a 4.86 ERA on the road compared to 5-0 with a 2.48 ERA at home. Meanwhile, the Cardinals at 7-0 in Mikolas’s last seven starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in 6 or his last 9 starts overall.
St. Louis is 22-12 at home, the 7th best home team in MLB. Toronto is 14-17 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 9.5)
The Diamondbacks (32-34) won last night’s Interleague series opener 8-4 in extra innings, taking care of business as -170 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners (33-32) tap righty Logan Evans (3-1, 2.83 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Brandon Pfaadt (7-4, 5.51 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Initially, Bryan Woo (5-3, 3.07 ERA) was expected to start for Seattle. However, his start was pushed back and Evans was called up from AAA to make tonight’s start.
Once Evans was announced at the starter, sharps got down hard on the Diamondbacks, steaming Arizona up from -110 to -130.
At Circa, the Snakes are only receiving 17% of moneyline bets but 38% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split out in Vegas.
Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of line movement or more in their direction are 97-52 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Arizona has the better bats, hitting .252 with 93 homers and 331 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .240 with 84 homers and 286 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are hitting .257 against righties (5th best in MLB) compared to the Mariners hitting .239 (22nd).
Pfaadt is 4-2 with a 4.15 at home compared to 3-2 with a 6.69 ERA on the road.
