Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
Top MLB Resources:
6:35 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (-135, 9.5)
The Orioles (34-44) dominated last night’s series opener 6-0, cruising as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers (38-41) tap lefty Jacob Latz (1-0, 3.26 ERA) and the Orioles start righty Charlie Morton (4-7, 5.64 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -125 home favorite and Texas a +110 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the short chalk with the Orioles, steaming Baltimore up from -125 to -135.
At Circa, the Orioles are receiving 57% of moneyline bets but a hefty 91% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the sharper wagers out in Vegas backing the Birds to post another win at Camden Yards.
Favorites who made the postseason the previous year receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 211-111 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites with a line move in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 164-77 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
When both teams are below .500, the home favorite off a win is 45-22 (67%) with an 8% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 110-60 (65%) with a 3% ROI.
Baltimore has the superior offense, hitting .240 with 89 homers and 310 runs scored compared to Texas only hitting .227 with 78 homers and 282 runs scored.
Morton has pitched well as of late, posting a 2.25 ERA in four June starts and allowing only 5 earned runs in 20 innnings pitched. Baltimore is 5-0 in his last five starts.
6:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-125, 9) at Cleveland Guardians
The Blue Jays (41-36) just dropped two of three against the White Sox, losing the series finale 4-2 as -200 home favorites. On the other hand, the Guardians (39-37) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning the series finale 3-0 as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Blue Jays send out lefty Eric Lauer (3-1, 2.29 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow lefty Logan Allen (5-4, 4.21 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Blue Jays to steal the opener, steaming Toronto up from a -110 road pick’em to a -125 road favorite. Some shops are even up to -130.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 81% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road team.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 102-61 (63%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the road favorite is 27-15 (64%) with a 9% ROI.
Toronto has the more explosive offense, hitting .256 with 79 homers and 330 runs scored compared to Cleveland only hitting .230 with 75 homers and 286 runs scored. The Blue Jays are hitting .271 against lefties this season (3rd best in MLB) compared to the Guardians only hitting .223 (23rd).
Lauer has a 1.72 ERA in four June starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Allen has a 4.15 ERA in three June starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 17.1 innings pitched.
8:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros (-155, 7.5)
The Phillies (47-31) just took two of three against the Mets, winning the series finale 7-1 as -120 home favorites. Similarly, the Astros (45-33) just won two of three against the Angels, taking the series finale 8-7 as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty Ranger Suarez (6-1, 2.20 ERA) and the Astros counter with fellow southpaw Framber Valdez (8-4, 3.09 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -140 home favorite and Philadelphia a +120 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this virtual 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Astros jump up from -140 to -155.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 15-cent line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the Astros to earn a victory.
At DraftKings, the Astros are receiving 48% of moneyline bets and 59% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Houston is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites with a line move in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 164-77 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the postseason the previous year playing an opponent who also made the postseason the previous year are 81-40 (67%) with a 13% ROI.
When both teams are coming off a win, the home favorite is 38-22 (63%) with a 4% ROI. The Astros are 27-13 (68%) with a 20% ROI at home, including 9-2 (82%) with a 36% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their favor.
Houston has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Astros have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.28 (2nd best) compared to 4.63 (5th worst) for the Phillies.
