Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:35 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles (-145, 9)
The Guardians (50-26) won Monday night’s series opener 3-2, cashing as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians turn to lefty Logan Allen (8-3, 5.23 ERA) and the Orioles (49-29) go with fellow southpaw Cole Irvin (6-3, 3.45 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -130 home favorite and Cleveland a +120 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Orioles to bounce back with a win, steaming Baltimore up from -130 to -145. The Orioles are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 251-157 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. Baltimore is 40-23 (64%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite, the 5th-best chalk team in MLB. The Orioles are 16-8 (67%) with a 12% ROI as a favorite after a loss. Baltimore has the edge offensively, hitting .252 with 125 homers and 405 runs scored compared to Cleveland hitting .244 with 89 homers and 382 runs scored. Irvin has a 2.83 ERA at home compared to 4.26 on the road. The home plate ump, Dan Bellino, is 55% to the home team historically. The Orioles have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. This is also a buy-low, sell-high value play on Baltimore, who has lost four straight, while the Guardians have won six straight.
7:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-130, 9)
The Reds (37-41) cruised to an 11-5 victory in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Pirates (37-41) start righty Mitch Keller (8-4, 3.11 ERA) and the Reds send out fellow righty Hunter Greene (5-2, 3.35 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -120 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Reds laying short chalk at home, steaming Cincinnati up from -120 to -130. The Reds are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 162-110 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. Keller has a 3.83 ERA on the road compared to 2.36 at home. Over their last ten games, the Reds are hitting .242 with a 3.45 ERA while the Pirates are hitting .222 with a 5.01 ERA. The home plate ump, Tom Hanahan, is 61% to the home team historically. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 8.5 to 9 at several shops. The over is receiving 37% of bets but 47% of dollars, a sharp contrarian over bet split. The forecast calls for high 80s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center at Great American Ballpark.
9:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-120, 7.5) at San Diego Padres
The Padres (42-41) took last night’s series opener 7-6 in extra innings, cashing as -185 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Nationals (38-40) hand the ball to lefty Mackenzie Gore (6-6, 3.49 ERA) and the Padres counter with righty Adam Mazur (0-2, 7.27 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -120 home favorite and Washington a +110 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite an even ticket count we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of the Nationals (+110 to -120). Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Washington. The Nationals are only receiving 48% of moneyline bets but 74% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in addition to a steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 251-157 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their direction are 47-26 (64%) with an 8% ROI. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 115-91 (56%) with a 4% ROI. Gore has a 2.28 ERA on the road compared to 4.13 at home. The Padres are hitting .228 against lefties, ranking 24th in MLB. Mazur is a 23-year-old rookie making his 5th career start. Through four starts, he has allowed 14 earned runs in 17.1 innings pitched. The Nationals also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win.
