Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (-145, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Reds (25-24) took last night’s series opener 7-1, cruising as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds hand the ball to righty Nick Martinez (2-4, 3.66 ERA) and the Pirates (15-33) turn to lefty Bailey Falter (2-3, 4.02 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -125 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the red-hot Reds laying short road chalk, steaming Cincinnati up from -125 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Reds are taking in 89% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing lopsided one-way Pro and Joe action in favor of the road team.
Cincinnati has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Reds have the better bats, hitting .245 with 53 homers and 227 runs scored compared to the Pirates only hitting .216 with 33 homers and 142 runs scored. Cincinnati is hitting .258 over their last ten games compared to .207 for Pittsburgh.
Martinez has a 1.89 ERA in three May starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 19 innings pitched. The Reds also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.34 compared to 4.61 for the Pirates.
Cincinnati is 4-0 against Pittsburgh this season.
7:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 8.5)
The Brewers (23-25) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-4, cashing as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (15-31) send out lefty Keegan Akin (0-0, 3.27 ERA) and the Brewers turn to righty Logan Henderson (2-0, 2.45 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -120 home favorite and Baltimore a +105 road dog.
Sharps have looked to fade the reeling Orioles (who have lost seven straight), steaming the Brewers up from -120 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Brewers are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way support in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 153-76 (67%) with a 7% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 81-40 (67%) with a 6% ROI. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 54-26 (68%) with a 9% ROI.
The Brewers have additional betting system value as a favorite in an Interleague matchup, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee has pitched far better as of late, sporting a 3.65 ERA over their last ten games compared to 5.63 for Baltimore.
The Brewers are 16-7 (70%) with a 19% ROI as a favorite.
Milwaukee is 14-9 at home. Baltimore 7-16 on the road.
9:45 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-145, 8)
The Royals (27-22) took last night’s Interleague series opener 3-1, cashing as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Royals go with righty Michael Lorenzen (3-4, 3.76 ERA) and the Giants (28-20) start fellow righty Hayden Birdsong (1-0, 2.31 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -130 home favorite and Kansas City a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Giants in a bounce-back spot, steaming San Francisco up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Giants are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Giants are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and a whopping 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Non-division “sweet spot” favorites -135 to -160 are 85-53 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. The Giants are 15-6 (71%) with a 15% ROI as a home favorite. The Giants are 12-7 (63%) with a 13% ROI after a loss.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Giants have the more explosive bats, hitting 50 homers and scoring 223 runs compared to the Royals only hitting 31 homers and scoring 162 runs.
Lorenzen has a 5.35 ERA on the road compared to 0.95 at home. Birdsong has a 1.69 ERA at home compared to 3.68 on the road.
The Giants are 16-8 at home. The Royals are 10-13 on the road.
