Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:35 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 9) at Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles (19-34) took yesterday’s Interleague series opener 5-2, cashing as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals (30-24) hand the ball to righty Andre Pallante (4-3, 4.18 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Tomoyuki Sugano (4-3, 3.07 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 home favorite and St. Louis a -105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cardinals to bounce back with a win, steaming St. Louis from a -105 road dog to a -115 road favorite. This signals wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of St. Louis.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 59% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing the road team.
The Cardinals have betting system value as a favorite off a loss and an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
St. Louis has the better bats, hitting .259 with 256 runs scored compared to Baltimore only hitting .236 with 205 runs scored.
The Cardinals have pitched far better as of late, sporting a team ERA of 3.17 over their past ten games compared to 6.06 for the Orioles.
St. Louis features the better bullpen, boasting a team ERA of 3.93 compared to 5.37 for Baltimore (3rd worst in MLB).
The Cardinals are 16-11 in night games. The Orioles are 9-17.
6:45 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8.5)
The Braves (25-27) just dropped two of three against the Padres, losing the series finale 5-3 as -150 home favorites. On the other hand, the Phillies (34-19) just took two of three against the Athletics but lost the series finale 5-4 as -200 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Braves turn to righty Spencer Strider (0-2, 5.79 ERA) and the Phillies go with lefty Ranger Suarez (3-0, 3.70 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -110 home favorite and Atlanta a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying short chalk at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the home chalk Phillies.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 166-85 (66%) with a 6% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 52-28 (65%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 104-56 (65%) with a 5% ROI.
The Phillies are 7-1 (88%) with a 38% ROI as a home favorite off a loss.
Philadelphia has the superior bats, hitting .261 with 260 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .248 with 216 runs scored.
The Phillies are hitting .271 at home (4th best in MLB) and .255 against righties (10th). Meanwhile, the Braves are hitting .232 on the road (21st) and .219 against lefties (23rd).
The Phillies are 17-8 at home. The Braves are 9-18 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals (-120, 8.5)
The Reds (27-28) won yesterday’s Interleague series opener 7-4, cashing as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds start righty Brady Singer (5-3, 4.88 ERA) and the Royals (29-26) tap lefty Daniel Lynch (3-1, 1.57 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Kansas City to bounce back with a win, steaming the Royals up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Royals are only receiving 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 83% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing the home team.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 120-53 (69%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites in the second game of a series after losing game one are 39-24 (62%) with a 5% ROI.
Singer has a 7.85 ERA in four May starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched. He has a 6.66 ERA on the road compared to 3.29 at home. Meanwhile, Lynch has a 0.79 ERA at home compared to 2.31 on the road.
Kansas City has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.20 (5th best in MLB) compared to 4.11 for Cincinnati.
The Royals are 17-10 at home. The Reds are 13-14 on the road.
