Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians (-140, 7.5)
The Guardians (17-6) took Tuesday night’s series opener 4-1, cashing as -120 home favorites. In tonight’s early evening rematch, the Red Sox (13-11) start righty Cooper Criswell (0-1, 4.26 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 3.44 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 home favorite and Boston a +115 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot-hand with the Guardians at home, who have won eight of their last nine games, pushing Cleveland up from -135 to -140. The Guardians are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling one-way support from both sharps and the betting public. The Guardians have value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more like to benefit the better team who is expected to win. Cleveland has the betters bats (hitting .257 vs .227). The Guardians are 4-1 against the Red Sox this season. Pros hit the under 8 as soon as it opened, dropping the total to 7.5. The forecast calls for mid 40s with cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds blowing in from center at Progressive Field.
6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (-130, 8.5)
This is the third game of a four-game series. The Phillies (15-9) won the opener 7-0, taking care of business as -115 road favorites. Then the Reds (13-10) bounced back with an 8-1 win last night, cashing as +115 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies start righty Spencer Turnbull (2-0, 1.23 ERA) and the Reds go with lefty Nick Lodolo (2-0, 0.75 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Cincinnati, steaming the Reds up to a -130 home favorite. This move is especially notable because the public (60% of moneyline bets) are on the Phillies, yet the line spiked in favor of Cincinnati. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the unpopular Red Legs. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 89-67 (57%) this season with a 6% ROI. Pros are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 8. Philadelphia is 13-8-1 to the under this season, the 7th best under team in MLB.
7:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals
This is the third game of a four-game series. The Blue Jays (13-11) took the opener 5-3, cashing as -120 road favorites. Then the Royals (14-10) clawed back yesterday with a 3-2 win, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays start righty Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.35 ERA) and the Royals tap fellow righty Alex March (2-0, 3.22 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a short -115 road favorite and Kansas City a +105 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 bet split we’ve seen Toronto move from -115 to -130. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move 15-cents based on an even ticket count. So we know based on the steam move that pros have gotten down hard on Toronto, triggering a big adjustment in their favor. Favorites off a loss, like the Jays here, are 92-55 (63%) this season with a 6% ROI. Road favorites are 74-42 (64%) with a 13% ROI. Sharps also hit the under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. The Royals are 15-8-1 to the under this season, the 3rd best under team in MLB.
