Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 14 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves (-190, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The White Sox (45-81) stole the opener 13-9, coming through as +175 road dogs. Then the Braves (57-69) bounced back with an 11-10 victory yesterday, taking care of business as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the White Sox hand the ball to lefty Martin Perez (1-2, 3.09 ERA) and the Braves counter with righty Hurston Waldrep (3-0, 1.02 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -175 home favorite and Chicago a +145 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have laid the wood with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -175 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Atlanta is taking in 50% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win is 67-40 (63%) with a 3% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-81 (65%) with a 3% ROI.
The Braves have additional betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Atlanta has the more explosive bats, hitting .245 with 143 homers and 556 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .231 with 125 homers and 490 runs scored.
Waldrep has allowed 1 earned run or less in all three starts this season.
Meanwhile, Perez has a 4.82 ERA on the road compared to 1.93 at home.
The Braves are 8-2 over their last ten games and hitting .297 while the White Sox are 3-7 over their last ten games and hitting .258.
Chicago is 19-45 on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
7:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-120, 8.5)
The Royals (65-61) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 4-3 as -125 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-2 as a -105 home dog.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers (62-65) haven’t officially announced their starting pitcher, although some speculation is that righty Kumar Rocker (4-5, 5.74 ERA) will get the nod or it might be a bullpen game for Texas. On the other hand, the Royals will tap lefty Noah Cameron (7-5, 2.47 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -125 road favorite and Kansas City a +105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the red-hot Royals (who have won seven of their last eight games), flipping Kansas City from a +105 home dog to a -120 home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Royals.
At DraftKings, Kansas City is taking in 65% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Royals are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.
Short home favorites -140 or less off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like Kansas City here, are 56-35 (62%) with an 11% ROI since July 1st. Favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season and are receiving 5-cents of line movement or more in their direction are 144-73 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Cameron has a 2.60 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 17.1 innings pitched. Kansas City is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
The Rangers are only hitting .224 against lefties, ranking 27th in MLB.
The Royals have played far better than the Rangers as of late, going 8-2 over their last ten games and hitting .263 with a 2.96 ERA. Meanwhile, Texas is 2-8 over their last ten games and hitting .235 with a 5.69 ERA.
Kansas City is 35-29 at home. Texas is 25-39 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-155, 8)
These NL West foes have split the first two games of this four-game series.
The Giants (61-65) took the opener 4-3, coming through as +125 road dogs. Then the Padres (70-56) bounced back with a 5-1 win last night, cashing as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Giants send out righty Landen Roupp (7-6, 3.45 ERA) and the Padres go with lefty JP Sears (7-10, 5.12 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -145 home favorite and San Francisco a +125 road dog.
Sharps have laid the moderate chalk with the Padres, driving San Diego up from -145 to -155.
At Circa, the Padres are receiving 80% of moneyline bets but a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home team.
Favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season and are receiving 5-cents of line movement or more in their direction are 144-73 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season.
The Padres are 31-16 (66%) with a 9% ROI as a home favorite, the 3rd best home favorite in MLB. San Diego is 18-8 (69%) with a 15% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their direction.
The Padres have additional betting system value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Padres are hitting .254 against righties (6th best in MLB). Meanwhile, the Giants are hitting .212 against lefties this season, dead last in MLB.
San Diego is 39-21 at home. San Francisco is 31-32 on the road.
