Today we have a loaded MLB midweek slate with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres (-125, 8.5)
The Padres (72-55) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-3 as -175 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-5 as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Twins (70-56) hand the ball to righty Simeon Woods Richardson (4-3, 3.77 ERA) and the Padres counter with fellow righty Matt Waldron (7-10, 4.29 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -120 home favorite and Minnesota a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Padres to complete the sweep laying short chalk at home, steaming San Diego up from -120 to -125. Some shops are inching closer to -130. The Padres are receiving 65% of moneyline bets, signaling modest public support but also respected smart money in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Padres have the better bats, hitting .265 compared to .252 for the Twins. San Diego is 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .270. Minnesota is 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .255. The Padres are 12-4 (75%) with a 25% ROI as a favorite in the month of August, including 6-1 (86%) with a 37% ROI as a home favorite. The Twins are just 13-24 (35%) with a -24% ROI as a dog this season, including 7-18 (28%) with a -39% ROI as a road dog. San Diego is hitting .273 against righties this season, best in MLB.
7:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-110, 7.5) at Atlanta Braves
The Braves (67-58) took last night’s series opener 3-1, cashing as +135 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (73-52) start righty Aaron Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA) and the Braves tap lefty Max Fried (7-7, 3.62 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 home favorite and Philadelphia a +105 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Phillies to bounce back, steaming Philadelphia from +105 to -110. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favorite of Philadelphia. The Phillies are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a steam move in their favor. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 148-102 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season. Short road favorites -130 or less are 186-156 (54%) with a 2% ROI. The Phillies have the superior offense, hitting .257 with 607 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .241 with 540 runs scored. Fried has a 7.90 ERA in three August starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched. He has a 4.27 ERA at home compared to 3.23 on the road. The Phillies are hitting .274 against lefties this season, second best in MLB.
10:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers (-180, 7.5)
The Dodgers (75-52) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 3-0 as -145 home favorites and then winning again last night 6-3 as -155 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Mariners (64-63) go with righty Logan Gilbert (7-9, 2.96 ERA) and the Dodgers send out fellow righty Jack Flaherty (9-5, 3.06 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -165 home favorite and Seattle a +150 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -165 to -180. The Dodgers are receiving 85% of moneyline bets, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 15-cent steam move in their direction. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year are 102-61 (63%) with a 4% ROI this season. Los Angeles has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Dodgers have a big edge at the plate, hitting .252 with 172 homers and 622 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .216 with 142 homers and 499 runs scored. Seattle is 27-37 on the road. Los Angeles is 40-22 at home.
