Today we have a loaded MLB midweek slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-155, 7) at Cleveland Guardians
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Rays (64-68) won the opener 9-0, coming through as +100 road dogs. Then the Guardians (65-66) bounced back with a 3-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -120 home favorites.
In this early afternoons series finale, the Rays hand the ball to righty Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.62 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Slade Cecconi (5-6, 4.41 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -130 road favorite and Cleveland a +110 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Rays to earn a victory and take the series, steaming the Rays up from -130 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 66% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is receiving 77% of moneyline bets and a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays have the edge at the plate, hitting .251 with 148 homers and 593 runs scored compared to the Guardians hitting .223 with 132 homers and 504 runs scored.
Rasmussen has posted a 1.16 ERA in four August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 23.1 innings pitched. He is 5-0 with a 2.68 ERA on the road and 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in day games.
Meanwhile, Cecconi has posted a 6.86 ERA in four August starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched. He has a 5.48 ERA at home and a 6.16 ERA in day games.
4:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners (-140, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Mariners (71-62) won the opener 9-6, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. Then the Padres (75-58) clawed back with a 7-6 win yesterday, cashing as -105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres go with righty Yu Darvish (3-3, 5.36 ERA) and the Mariners turn to fellow righty Bryan Woo (11-7, 2.94 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -130 home favorite and San Diego a +110 road dog.
Wiseguys have laid the modest chalk with Seattle at home, driving the Mariners up from -130 to -140.
At Circa, Seattle is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the Vegas smart money wagers backing the home team.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mariners have the more explosive bats, hitting 190 homers with 612 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting 116 homers with 561 runs scored.
Woo has posted a 2.08 ERA in four August starts, giving up only 6 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. He is 7-2 with 2.28 ERA at home this season.
On the other hand, Darvish has posted a 4.08 ERA in four August starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. He has a 7.66 ERA on the road compared to 2.95 at home.
The Mariners are 40-27 at home. The Padres are 32-26 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-155, 8.5)
The Mets (71-61) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 13-3 as +105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 6-5 as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Phillies (76-56) tap righty Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44 ERA) and the Mets turn to righty Nolan McLean (2-0, 1.46 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -145 home favorite and Philadelphia a +125 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand hand and have gotten down on the Mets to complete the sweep, steaming New York up from -145 to -155.
At Circa, the Mets are receiving 22% of moneyline bets but a hefty 71% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating one-way desert smart money laying the modest home chalk.
McLean, who is making his 3rd career start, has pitched 12.1 innings is his first two starts (both Mets wins), only allowing 2 earned runs.
The Mets are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .318 with a 4.03 ERA. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .310 with a 5.28 ERA.
New York has the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.95 ERA compared to 4.42 for Philadelphia.
The Mets are 23-6 at home against the Phillies in their last 29 home games, including 9-0 in the last 9 games.
The Mets are 43-24 at home. The Phillies are 34-34 on the road.
