Today we have a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from, including a pair of doubleheaders. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-160, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Padres (62-52) took last night’s series opener 6-0, cruising as -165 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Padres hand the ball to righty Michael King (9-6, 3.26 ERA) and the Pirates (56-56) counter with lefty Marco Gonzales (1-1, 3.72 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -145 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +130 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with San Diego, steaming the Padres up from -145 to -160. San Diego is receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI this season. Non-division road favorites off a win are 128-95 (57%) with a 2% ROI. San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Padres have the superior offense, hitting .265 with 532 runs scored compared to the Pirates hitting .233 with 468 runs scored. San Diego is 32-23 on the road. Pittsburgh is 27-29 at home. The Padres are 4-1 in King’s last five starts. He posted a 1.82 ERA in four July starts. He has a 2.62 ERA on the road compared to 4.25 at home. Gonzales posted a 5.25 ERA in three July starts.
6:45 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-160, 7.5) at Washington Nationals
This is the third game of a four-game series. The Giants (57-58) took the opener 4-1, taking care of business as -170 road favorites. Then the Nationals (52-62) bounced back with an 11-5 win yesterday, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Giants turn to lefty Blake Snell (1-3, 4.29 ERA) and the Nationals tap righty Jake Irvin (8-9, 3.56 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -150 road favorite and Washington a +135 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Giants, steaming San Francisco up from -150 to -160. The Giants are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy public and sharp support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 132-89 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI. When two below .500 teams face off, the road favorite is 74-51 (60%) with a 4% ROI. The Giants have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as well as betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Snell is coming off a no-hitter against the Reds. He has a 0.54 ERA in his last five starts. The Nationals are hitting .244 against lefties this season, ranking 19th in MLB. Irvin has a 6.42 ERA in his last five starts.
8:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (-140, 8.5)
The Red Sox (61-51) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 9-5 as +110 road dogs and then winning again last night 6-5 as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Red Sox go with righty Kutter Crawford (7-8, 3.81 ERA) and the Royals (63-52) tap lefty Cole Ragans (8-7, 3.36 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -150 home favorite and Boston a +135 road dog. The public says the Royals are a good team and can’t possibly get swept at home. However, despite receiving 60% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -150 to -140. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Boston as the line is moving toward the Red Sox (+135 to +125) despite receiving only 40% of moneyline wagers. Boston has the better bats, hitting .263 with 142 homers and 559 runs scored compared to Kanas City hitting .253 with 123 homers and 972 runs scored. The Red Sox have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Boston is 4-1 against Kansas City this season. Ragans has a 3.80 ERA at home compared to 2.86 on the road, as well as a 3.94 ERA at night compared to 2.44 in the day. The Red Sox are hitting .254 against lefties this season, ranking 11th in MLB. Boston is 29-26 (53%) with a 16% ROI as a dog this season, the 4th best dog team in MLB. Boston is 19-13 (59%) with a 29% ROI as a dog against a team who missed the playoffs the previous season. The Red Sox are hitting .312 over their past ten games compared to .269 for the Royals.
