Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs (-170, 10)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Royals (49-53) dominated the opener 12-4, cashing as +125 road dogs. Then the Cubs (60-41) bounced back with a 6-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -265 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals hand the ball to righty Seth Lugo (6-5, 2.94 ERA) and the Cubs send out fellow righty Colin Rea (8-3, 3.80 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 home favorite and Kansas City a +125 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying modest chalk at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -145 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 84% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, indicating one-sided Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more in their direction are 149-78 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season.
The Cubs are 31-13 (71%) with a 9% ROI as a home favorite, the 5th most profitable home favorite in MLB. When playing as a home favorite against a below .500 team, the Cubs are 16-4 (80%) with a 16% ROI. When priced as a home favorite of -150 or more, the Cubs are 25-6 (81%) with a 20% ROI.
Chicago has the better offense, hitting .256 with 150 homers and 533 runs scored compared to Kansas City hitting .245 with 81 homers and 355 runs scored.
Rea has a 1.45 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched. The Cubs are 7-1 in Rea’s last 8 starts.
Meanwhile, Lugo has a 3.93 ERA in three July starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched.
3:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners (-135, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Brewers (60-41) won the opener 6-0, coming through as +110 road dogs. Then the Mariners (54-47) bounced back with a 1-0 win yesterday, cashing as -135 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Brewers go with righty Quinn Priester (8-2, 3.33 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty Luis Castillo (7-5, 3.21 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -130 home favorite and Milwaukee a +110 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Mariners quietly creep up from -130 to -135.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 5-cent move we can infer that the sharper, more respected wagers are backing the home team.
At Circa, Seattle is taking in 45% of moneyline bets but a hefty 69% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the desert smart money siding with the home chalk.
Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 60-37 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Mariners have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Castillo has a 1.45 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched. The Mariners are 5-0 in his last five starts. He has a 2.06 ERA at home compared to 4.74 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8.5)
The Guardians (50-50) have taken the first two games in this four-game series, winning the opener 10-5 as -145 home favorites and winning again last night 6-3 as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (44-56) tap righty Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.95 ERA) and the Guardians start fellow righty Slade Cecconi (5-4, 3.84 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -120 home favorite and Baltimore a +100 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the short chalk with the Guardians, steaming Cleveland up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of another Guardians win at home.
Home favorites with a line move in their favor who also made the postseason the previous year are 204-107 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 149-78 (66%) with a 4% ROI.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 94-56 (63%) with a 5% ROI. Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 60-37 (62%) with a 7% ROI.
The Guardians are 15-8 (65%) with a 9% ROI as a home favorite, the 8th best home favorite in MLB.
Cecconi has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts.
Meanwhile, Eflin is returning from the injured list after posting an 8.72 ERA in five June starts, allowing 21 earned runs in 21.2 innings pitched.
