Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 16 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-145, 7)
These AL Central opponents have split the first two games of this four-game series. The Tigers (50-52) took the opener 8-2, taking care of business as -135 road favorites. Then the Guardians (60-40) bounced back with a 5-4 win yesterday, cashing as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Jack Flaherty (7-5, 3.13 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Tanner Bibee (8-4, 3.58 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 home favorite and Detroit a +120 road dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Guardians at home, driving Cleveland up from -135 to -145. The Guardians are receiving 70% of moneyline bets, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more against teams who missed the playoffs the previous year are 175-108 (62%) with a 1% ROI this season. The Guardians are 44-20 (69%) with a 20% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk record in MLB. Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Guardians are 32-14 at home. The Tigers are 26-28 on the road. Cleveland has the better bats, hitting .243 with 469 runs scored compared to Detroit hitting .234 with 441 runs scored.
6:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (-110, 8.5)
The Padres (53-50) took last night’s series opener 4-0, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Padres start righty Matt Waldron (5-9, 3.59 ERA) and the Nationals (47-54) turn to lefty Mitchell Parker (5-5, 3.90 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -120 road favorite and Washington a +110 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Padres. However, despite 77% of bets backing San Diego we’ve seen this line fall away from the Padres (-120 to +100) and toward the Nationals (+110 to -110). Some shops are even approaching Nationals -115. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Washington, as the line has flipped in the Nats’ favor despite being the unpopular side. Washington is only receiving 23% of moneyline bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 334-218 (61%) with a 3% ROI this season. Washington has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is favored to win. The Nats also have fishy buy-low value as a favorite who is below .500 playing a sell-high opponent who is above .500. The Padres are 0-4 in Waldron’s last four starts. Parker has a 2.82 ERA at home compared to 4.91 on the road. The Padres are only hitting .237 against lefties this season, ranking 21st in MLB.
8:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals (-120, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Royals (56-46) took the opener 10-4, cruising as -145 home favorites. Then the Diamondbacks (52-50) bounced back with a 6-2 win yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Diamondbacks send out righty Ryne Nelson (7-6, 4.78 ERA) and the Royals go with fellow righty Michael Wacha (7-6, 3.55 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -130 home favorite and Arizona a +120 road dog. The public is all over the Royals laying short chalk at home. However, despite receiving 73% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -130 to -120. This signals smart money jumping on Arizona at a plus money payout, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor (+120 to +110) despite being the unpopular side. Arizona has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Snakes have a slight edge on offense, hitting .252 with 501 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .249 with 471 runs scored. Arizona is 3-0 in Nelson’s last three starts. He has a 2.22 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched.
