Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 18 games to choose from, including several doubleheaders. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

8 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs (-160, 8)

The Cubs (50-35) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-2, taking care of business as -200 home favorites.

In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (40-43) hand the ball to righty Tanner Bibee (4-8, 3.90 ERA) and the Cubs turn to lefty Shota Imanaga (4-2, 2.54 ERA).

This line opened with Chicago listed as a -150 home favorite and Cleveland a +135 road dog.

Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the modest chalk with Chicago at home, driving the Cubs up from -150 to -160.

At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 84% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is receiving 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of Chicago earning another victory at Wrigley.

Non-division home favorites off a win receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction are 122-65 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season.

The Cubs are 40-18 (69%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. When the Cubs are a favorite and also receive line movement in their favor they have gone 36-12 (75%) with a 20% ROI.

Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.

The Cubs have the superior offense, hitting .257 with 125 homers and 458 runs scored compared to the Guardians only hitting .225 with 81 homers and 305 runs scored. Chicago is hitting .260 against righties (4th best in MLB) while Cleveland is hitting just .220 against lefties (29th).

Bibee has a 4.96 ERA on the road compared to 2.57 at home. Cleveland is 2-7 in his last nine starts.

Chicago is 26-15 at home. Cleveland is 20-23 on the road.

9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-145, 8.5)

The Diamondbacks (43-42) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 4-2 as +125 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-2 as -130 home favorites.

In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (45-41) send out righty Landen Roupp (6-5, 3.43 ERA) and the Diamondbacks counter with fellow righty Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.49 ERA).

This line opened with Arizona listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog.

Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have gotten down hard on the Diamondbacks to stay hot, steaming Arizona up from -130 to -145.

At Circa, the Snakes are taking in 46% of moneyline bets but a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wiseguy wagers backing the Diamondbacks out in Vegas.

Arizona has a big edge at the plate, hitting .255 with 126 homers and 444 runs scored compared to San Francisco only hitting .230 with 80 homers and 353 runs scored.

The Diamondbacks are hitting .247 at home (10th best in MLB) and .257 against righties (7th). On the flip side, the Giants are hitting .220 on the road (27th) and .235 against righties (25th).

Kelly pitched well in the month of June, posting a 2.79 ERA in five starts. Meanwhile, Roupp has a 4.56 ERA on the road compared to 1.85 at home.

Arizona is hitting .248 with a 3.64 team ERA over their last ten games compared to San Francisco hitting just .210 with a 4.55 team ERA.

9:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (-185, 7)

These non-division opponents have split the first two games of this four-game series.

The Mariners (44-41) won the opener 6-2, cashing as -160 home favorites. Then the Royals (40-46) bounced back with a 6-3 win yesterday, coming through as +115 road dogs.

In tonight’s rematch, the Royals start lefty Noah Cameron (2-4, 2.79 ERA) and the Mariners go with righty Logan Gilbert (2-2, 3.55 ERA).

This line opened with Seattle listed as a -170 home favorite and Kansas City a +145 road dog.

Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Mariners, steaming Seattle up from -170 to -185.

At Circa, the Mariners are taking in 64% of moneyline bets but a massive 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further validation of the wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing Seattle to bounce back at home.

Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.

The Mariners have the better bats, hitting .248 with 111 homers and 389 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .244 with only 58 homers and 285 runs scored.

Seattle is hitting .249 against lefties (11th best in MLB) while Kansas City is only hitting .247 against righties (18th).

Gilbert has a 2.35 ERA at home compared to 6.00 on the road.

Meanwhile, the Royals are just 2-7 in Cameron’s nine starts this season.